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Global pig meat output is forecast at 122 million tonnes in 2021, up 11.2% from 2020, primarily concentrated in China, with an anticipated increase of 12 million tonnes, accounting for 94% of global expansion. After losing millions of pigs due to ASF from 2018 to 2020, China’s high production primarily reflects the sharp increase in hog stocks liquidation by farmers to minimize losses from the decline in domestic prices, while hog inventory rose.
Although ASF remains a threat in many parts of the world, production expansions are forecast for the European Union (+1.7%), Brazil (+5.5%), Viet Nam (+5.5%), the Russian Federation (+2.4%), and the United Kingdom (+5.4%). However, production declines are anticipated in the United States due to tight hog supplies, rising feed costs and labour constraints. Outputs in the Philippines, Myanmar, and the Republic of Korea may decline below 2020 levels on the continued ASF impact.
Total pig meat exports in the world are forecast to reach 12.9 million tonnes in 2021, virtually stable year-on-year. This deceleration mainly results from a likely contraction in imports by 13% in China, as the country aims to balance supply with a decline in national demand. Elsewhere, decreases in purchases are expected in the United Kingdom, the
European Union and Japan, offset by increases in the Philippines, Mexico, the United States, and Viet Nam.
Click here to see the FAO's full Meat Market Review
December 2021/ FAO.
https://www.fao.org/
