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First estimates for global pig production in 2024 from USDA

In its latest report "Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade" from October 12, the USDA released its first estimates for next year, in which it foresees a production similar to 2023, as well as greater dynamism in international trade and a slight decrease in consumption.

Projections for world pig farming in 2023 and 2024. Prepared by 333 Latin America with data from FAS - USDA.

General overview

World pork production in 2024 is expected to remain virtually unchanged at 115.5 million tons (Mt), as lower production in the European Union and China would be offset by higher production in Brazil, Vietnam, and the United States.

In the European Union, production is expected to decrease by 2% year-on-year to 21.2 Mt. The sow inventory continued to decrease in 2023 and is expected to be at 10.3 million head in 2024. Feed prices have moderated and the industry's profitability improved in 2023. However, weak domestic demand and the lack of new export markets to replace China are expected to lead to a decrease in industrial production. Weak domestic demand and the lack of new export markets to replace China are expected to cause a restructuring of the sector in 2024, as producers will try to adapt production to lower overall demand.

In 2024, EU pork exports are expected to decrease by 25% compared to 2019 and account for 15% of total production, whereas five years ago, they accounted for 19%. In addition to increasing regulatory burdens, EU pig producers continue to face major challenges in controlling the impact of African swine fever (ASF), which has led to a reduction in the pig herd and limited exports to some markets. As production has contracted, the share destined for domestic consumption has grown at the expense of exports.

Chinese production is projected to decrease by 1%, as weak domestic demand has led to heavy losses in the industry through most of 2023, encouraging producers to reduce production.

Brazil's production is expected to increase by 5% year-on-year, as hog prices reflect growth in several export markets, such as Mexico, Singapore, and the Dominican Republic. Input costs are also expected to decrease.

Vietnamese production is estimated to increase by 5% to 3.7 Mt, thanks to the recovery of domestic demand as a result of the post-COVID-19 economic recovery and efficiency improvements resulting from investment and industry consolidation.

Global forecasts

World pork production in 2024 is forecast to reach 115.5 Mt, which would be practically similar to the production expected in 2023.

Global exports are expected to grow by 2.2% compared to 2023, from 10.1 Mt to 10.4 Mt.

Imports should reach a volume of 9.75 Mt in 2024, representing an increase of 1.1% compared to the previous year.

Apparent consumption would decrease by 0.1%, from 115.0 to 114.9 Mt.

Indicators in the leading countries

China is expected to produce 55.9 Mt of pork, which indicates a decrease of 1.0% with respect to 2023. On the other hand, an increase of 1.1% is estimated in the volume of imports, which would reach 2.3 Mt.

The European Union's production is expected to fall by 1.6% to 21.2 Mt, while its exports are expected to remain at 3.2 Mt. Imports are estimated at 100,000 tons.

The United States is expected to increase its production by 2.2% to 12.7 Mt, and exports are expected to increase by 2.8% to 3.15 Mt.

Japan would remain the world's second-largest importer of pork with 1.51 Mt, an increase of 1.3% over 2023.

Brazil is expected to increase its production volume by 4.9%, reaching 4.83 Mt. Exports of 1.53 Mt are also expected, which would mean an increase of 5.5%.

Mexico is expected to see a 1.3% increase in production with approximately 1.6 Mt. It would maintain its position as the third-largest importer in the world and first in Latin America with 1.31 Mt, a figure similar to what is expected in 2023.