0
The month of May marks the release of the first forecasts for global cereal production, but with many crops yet to be planted in the Northern hemisphere, there is a high level of uncertainty with these projections. This year, the validity of the first forecasts for 2024/25 wheat production is already being tested, as drought and prolonged frost in key produc- ing areas of the Russian Federation have constrained yield prospects. Consequently, world wheat export prices surged during May on deepening production worries, centered on the Black Sea region. Wheat, most of which is consumed as food with only a limited number of substitutes, is being watched very closely, particularly by importing countries from a food security perspective.
FAO first forecast for the 2024/25 (July/June) season anticipates world cereal production to total 2 846 million tonnes, virtually on par with the record output realized in 2023/24. Global maize and wheat outputs are forecast to decline, while those of barley, rice and sorghum are predicted to increase.
World cereal total utilization in 2024/25 is expected to increase by 0.5 percent to a new record high of 2 851 million tonnes, led by increased food consumption, especially of rice. Global feed utilization of cereals is also forecast to increase, up 0.4 percent, driven by strong demand for coarse grains (especially maize and sorghum) for animal feed, while feed uses of wheat and rice are both forecast to contract.
World cereal stocks will likely increase by 1.5 percent (13.2 million tonnes) above their opening levels to a record 897 million tonnes, reflecting expectations of higher inventories of coarse grains (with increases for maize, barley and sorghum) and rice. By contrast, wheat stocks could decline to their lowest level since 2021/22. With utilization also forecast to rise in 2024/25, the global cereal stock-to-use ratio will likely remain close to its 2023/24 level, around 30.9 percent.
FAO predicts world trade in cereals to decline by 1.3 percent from the previous year to 481 million tonnes, led by lower trade prospects for maize. International rice trade is forecast to grow robustly.
June 7, 2024/ FAO.
https://www.fao.org/
