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The number of swine slaughtered in 2024 is expected to reach 16.85 million, up slightly from 2023 (16.74 million). Higher beginning stocks, the result of delays in slaughter amid the extremely hot summer in 2023, will supply much of the increase. Strong demand for pork will support carcass prices and incentivize hog operators to maintain production levels. Pig production in 2024 should rise with the expected growth in sow population from 2023.
Ending inventories in 2024 will be flat year on year assuming mild climate conditions and no disease outbreaks. Pork production in 2023 was flat but had dramatic swings during the second half of the year. High temperatures in summer diminished appetites and swine took longer to gain weight. The resultant delay in slaughtering triggered a mild shortage and pork carcass prices spiked in August and September. Following that, mild weather in the winter allowed fast weight gain and the pace of swine slaughter quickly recovered.
Classical Swine Fever (CSF) and Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea were reported during the year, but the impacts on production were limited. In 2023, four reported cases of CSF resulted in total culls of 13,400 head of swine. Two of the cases occurred in Saga prefecture on Kyushu Island, which has 31% of Japan’s total swine population. Prefectural governments and local hog operators have agreed to apply CSF vaccine to healthy swine reared in Kyushu Island to prevent further outbreaks in the largest pork production area.
Despite inflation’s dampening effect on consumers, Japan’s pork consumption in 2024 is projected to hold steady from 2023 driven by strong demand in the retail as well as the food service sector, which continues to benefit from the post-COVID spike in tourism. Pork has come to be a staple animal protein for the Japanese diet, especially for home cooking. It is relatively price inelastic so less affected by inflation, but increasingly consumers do favor the lower-priced cuts of pork.
Japan’s pork imports in 2024 are projected to increase by just 1% to meet a domestic supply shortfall. Ongoing uncertainty in exchange rates and foreign supply chains likely will drive traders to limit imports to what is needed to meet current demand. Higher landed costs depressed Japan’s pork imports in 2023 by 6%. The weak yen against the dollar and euro was one factor, but also international tensions in the Red Sea further increased import costs when shipping routes through the region became unavailable. Vessels from Europe to Japan had to change routes to bypass the Red Sea, which affected about 20% of pork imports, mainly frozen pork and pork products. Also, Japan continued to suspend imports from some of the European countries such as Germany and Italy due to outbreaks of African Swine Fever (ASF). To steady supplies, importers drew down inventories by 7% from 2022.
March 6, 2024/ USDA/ United States.
https://apps.fas.usda.gov
