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What's in store for Japan's pork market in 2024?

High carcass prices and strong domestic retail demand will drive greater pork production. Recently lowered tariffs further incentivize imports of certain prepared pork products.

30 August 2023
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Japan is anticipated to have a higher beginning inventory of swine in 2024 with 8.97 million head. Although production costs are still high, strong carcass prices and steady domestic demand should sustain production levels. Slaughter in 2024 will be up, reaching 1.3 million MT, CWE but pig production will more than keep pace, so ending inventory in 2024 will be up year on year.

Pork is expected to continue to be a main protein source for consumers in Japan in 2024. Consumers are selecting pork and pork products as less expensive alternative animal protein sources. Demand for pork is expected to remain strong as this trend continues in the second half year of 2023 through 2024. Domestic consumption in 2024 is projected to be 2.79 million MT, CWE.

Competitive pricing of frozen pork sustains high demand by food processors as well as the hotel, restaurant, and institutional sectors. Japan’s pork imports are forecast to be steady in 2024 at 1.51 million MT, CWE. Growth is projected in 2024 for imports of prepared pork products as tariff cuts take effect, especially for ground seasoned pork (GSP), which is mainly intended for sausage manufacturing.

August 18, 2023/ USDA/ United States.
https://apps.fas.usda.gov

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