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According to the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025, global meat production is projected to be 16% higher in 2025 than in the base period (2013-15). This compares with an increase of almost 20% in the previous decade. Developing countries are projected to account for the vast majority of the total increase, through a more intensive use of protein meal in feed rations.
- Poultry meat is the primary driver of the growth in total meat production in response to expanding global demand for this more affordable animal protein compared to red meats. Low production costs and lower product prices have contributed to making poultry the meat of choice both for producers and consumers in developing countries.
- In the bovine meat sector, several years of cow herd liquidation in major producing regions resulted in low beef production in 2015. However, production is expected to grow from 2016 onwards, with higher carcass weights more than offsetting the decline in cattle slaughter.
- Pigmeat production will also grow after 2016, driven by China, where herd size is expected to stabilise after years of substantial reductions (a drop of 25 million pigs between 2012 and 2015). Another factor contributing to China’s output expansion in the coming years is further consolidation of the pork sector.
- Production is also expected to increase in the sheepmeat sector with an expected global growth of 2.1% p.a., a higher rate than the last decade, and led by China, Pakistan, Sudan and Australia.
Globally 10% of meat output will be traded in 2025, up from 9% in 2015, with most of the increase coming from poultry meat. Import demand will be weak during the first years of the outlook period, mainly due to lower imports due to the import ban of the Russian Federation and slower growth in China, but will strengthen in the second half of the projection period, due to import growth in the developing world. The most significant growth in import demand originates from Viet Nam, which captures a large share of additional imports for all meat types. Africa is another fast growing meat importing region albeit from a lower base. Although developed countries are still expected to account for slightly more than half of global meat exports by 2025, their share is steadily decreasing relative to the base period. On the other hand, Brazil’s share of global exports is expected to increase to around 26%, contributing to nearly half of the expected increase in global meat exports over the projection period.
Nominal meat prices are expected to start at levels similar to those registered in 2010, and in most cases, trend marginally upwards. By 2025, prices for beef and pigmeat are projected to increase to around USD 4 497/t carcass weight equivalent (c.w.e.) and USD 1 580/t c.w.e. respectively, while world sheepmeat and poultry prices are expected to rise to around USD 3 857/t c.w.e. and USD 1 571/t product weight (p.w.) respectively. In real terms meat prices are expected to trend down from their recent high levels.
Monday July 4, 2016/ FAO.
http://www.fao.org
