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Global pig meat production is forecast to reach 124 million tonnes in 2024, a slight decrease from the previous year. The contraction in production in China, coupled with marginal declines in Thailand and Canada, is expected to offset growth in other key producing regions, including the United States, the Russian Federation, Vietnam, the European Union, and Brazil.
In China, pig meat output is projected to decline due to government policies aimed at reducing the breeding sow population from 41 to 39 million heads. This policy follows a period of oversupply, which caused a sharp decline in domestic prices. Although profit margins for producers have improved, the government's intervention seeks to stabilize the market by better aligning supply with demand. Similarly, Thailand is expected to see a reduction in pig meat output as part of efforts to address oversupply and low prices. In Canada, output is forecast to contract due to lower slaughter capacity, particularly in Eastern Canada, and reductions in the breeding herd. Additionally, outbreaks of African swine fever (ASF) continue to affect production in Southeast Asia, leading to culling, price volatility, and limited or negative supply growth in 2024.
By contrast, pig meat output is expected to increase in the United States, driven by productivity gains, anticipated herd liquidation in response to weaker farm margins and lower feed costs, which have resulted in heavier carcass weights. In the Russian Federation, pig meat production is expected to rise to meet growing domestic consumption and strong foreign demand, particularly following the opening of the Chinese market. In Vietnam, despite ASF-related challenges, production is forecast to grow, supported by robust domestic demand and lower feed costs. Brazil is also expected to see an increase in pig meat output, driven by lower production costs and rising national demand. After two years of contraction, pig meat supply in the European Union is projected to remain largely stable in 2024, supported by ample piglet supply, higher slaughter numbers, and lower feed costs, contributing to heavier carcass weights.
FAO. 2024. Meat Market Review: Emerging trends and outlook in 2024. Rome.
https://openknowledge.fao.org
