0
World pig meat trade is forecast at 10 million tonnes in 2024, up 1.6% from 2023. The growth is principally driven by anticipated demand increases in the Republic of Korea, Mexico, and the Philippines.
In the Republic of Korea, imports are expected to rise year-on-year due to tighter domestic supplies. Meanwhile, in Mexico, pig meat imports are projected to increase, supported by strong domestic demand and facilitated by the Presidential Anti-Inflation Decree issued in December 2023, which allows tariff-free imports from countries without free trade agreements with Mexico throughout 2024. In the Philippines, continued challenges related to animal diseases are expected to constrain domestic supplies, resulting in higher import demand. The extension of the pig meat tariff reduction until 2028, introduced in June 2024, is anticipated to support this trend further.
However, the growth in global import demand will be partly offset by an expected decline in imports from China, reflecting subdued demand and ample domestic supplies. This outlook assumes no significant developments in the ongoing anti-dumping investigation into pig meat imports from the European Union, launched by China in June 2024, which has had no major impact so far.
On the export side, shipments from the United States are expected to increase, driven by abundant domestic supplies and robust global demand, particularly from Mexico and the Republic of Korea. In Canada, declining domestic consumption is likely to contribute to higher export volumes. Brazil is also expected to see higher sales, supported by ample supplies, market diversification, and a devalued national currency. Similarly, the Russian Federation is forecast to expand pig meat exports, benefiting from increased supplies and the opening of the Chinese market.
By contrast, exports from the European Union are anticipated to decline due to continued lower purchases from China, despite potentially higher shipments to other Asian markets, including Japan, the Republic of Korea, and the Philippines.
FAO. 2024. Meat Market Review: Emerging trends and outlook in 2024. Rome.
https://openknowledge.fao.org
