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Production
According to USDA forecasts, global pork production in 2021 is expected to be 105.1 million tons, up over 8.5% from the previous year with much of the increase attributable to China.
Production in China is expected to increase 20% from last year to reach 43.8 million tons. Since early 2021, China's hog slaughter has been strong and carcass weights higher. Rebounding pork production at a time of weak seasonal demand has caused prices to drop rapidly, prompting liquidation of animals as Chinese producers have sought to protect margins. However, the reported culling of breeding animals, continued productivity challenges, and weaker producer margins are expected to slow China's production growth later in the year.
The European Union will follow as the second-largest global producer with 24.8 million tons (+2% from 2020), followed by the United States with 12.7 million tons (-0.5% from 2020).
Trade
China will lead global imports with 5.0 million tons. This would be an over 5% contraction from last year. Philippine imports will increase 154% to 425,000 tons on lower tariffs and a continued ASF-induced supply deficit. Mexico imports will total 985,000 tons (+3%) on high domestic prices, a stronger peso, and as an offset to strong exports.
Total global pork exports for 2021 are expected to reach 11.8 million tons. The European Union will have the greatest export potential, exporting 4.4 million tons in 2021, down 1.8% from last year. The United States will export 3.4 million tons, down 3.7% from 2020. Canada's foreign sales will increase 1.1% from last year to reach 1.5 million tons.
July 12, 2021/ USDA/ United States.
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/
