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According to USDA's quarterly Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade report, China pork imports are forecast lower but will still remain near record highs unlikely to exceed 2020 levels due to growing domestic production. Elsewhere, demand for pork is improving from last year when imports hit the lowest level since 2016 due to both COVID-19 and robust demand from China. Lower expected global pork prices will buoy shipments to price-sensitive markets.
Global pork production
Global pork production is forecast 4% higher in 2021 due to rebounding output in countries affected by African swine fever (ASF) and to a lesser extent recovery from COVID-19 impacts. Production is forecast 9% higher in China as producers aggressively rebuild their herds and take advantage of high hog prices. However, at 41.5 million tons, production is still nearly 25% lower than pre-disease levels. Recovery from ASF is also driving production growth in Vietnam and the Philippines, although outbreaks continue to occur in the latter country which could challenge rebuilding efforts. In the European Union, production is up marginally on stable herd levels and productivity growth. The discovery of ASF in the wild boar population of Germany is not expected to impact production directly, but export restrictions will result in higher German pork supplies in an already saturated EU market. This, coupled with weak domestic demand and slowing demand from China, is likely to dampen prices next year. In Brazil, production is forecast up nearly 4% due to rebounding domestic pork consumption and relatively resilient export demand, aided by a weak real.
Global pork exports
Global exports are forecast unchanged at 10.8 million tons in 2021. Global pork demand is expected to rebound from COVID-19 on improving economic conditions and recovery in the restaurant and food service sectors. However, slowing demand from the top importer – China – offsets growth from the rest of the world. After a torrid pace in 2020, China pork imports are forecast down 6% at 4.5 million tons due to the rebound in domestic production. Other major pork importers including Mexico, Philippines, Japan, Korea, and the United States are all forecast higher, but these countries combined account for less trade than China alone.
U.S. production and exports
U.S. production is forecast about 1% higher in 2021 on modest growth in slaughter. Producers indicated intentions to reduce sow farrowings in later 2020 and first quarter of 2021, and this will limit hog supplies much of next year while slightly lower carcass weights will also limit production growth. Despite a relatively strong domestic market, export demand is softening. Exports are unchanged from 2020 at 3.3 million tons as weakening demand from China offsets growth to other markets including Mexico and Japan.
October 9, 2020/ USDA/ United States.
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/
