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Growing production of pork combined with falling exports could lead to lower prices

The growing production of pigmeat combined with falling exports could lead to lower prices. This is just one of the findings of the latest short term outlook report from the European Commission's agriculture and rural development department.

Prices started 2017 at a considerably higher level than the two previous years. They remained stable for the first 2 months of the year and then steadily rose to 177 EUR/100kg by the end of June. In July prices fell to 170 EUR/100kg and have stayed at that level throughout the summer. As feed prices have remained fairly low and piglets are now cheaper, farmers’ margins have been improving.

At the beginning of September, pigmeat prices fell in the US and Canada to below 130 EUR/100kg in anticipation of increasing supplies. This will add pressure to EU competitiveness on the export markets, in particular next year when EU production is expected to expand.

The EU average piglet price started 2016 on a rising trend, reaching a historical maximum of EUR 59 in mid-April. Mid-May the trend reversed to follow a continuous seasonal decline down to EUR 47.5 in September. Nevertheless, prices remain substantially higher than a year before when the price was EUR 43.

EU consumption of pigmeat is expected to remain stable over the next two years at 31.9 kg/capita in 2017, slightly rising to 32 kg/capita in 2018 as production increases.

Thursday October 5, 2017/ DG Agriculture/ European Union.
https://ec.europa.eu/agriculture