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Adjusted projections for 2020
Due to COVID-19-related labor disruptions in pork processing plants, 2020 pork production is reduced 1.6 billion pounds from last month’s forecast to 27.4 billion pounds, nearly 1 percent below production in 2019.
Lower U.S. pork production, increases in pork prices, and declines in world economic growth are expected to temper U.S. pork export growth for the balance of 2020 to 7.15 billion pounds, 327 million pounds below last month’s forecast but 13 percent above 2019.
Hog prices for quarters 2-4 of 2020 are expected to reflect a situation where supplies of slaughter-ready hogs are ample relative to expected slaughter capacity. Second-quarter prices of live equivalent 51-52 percent live hogs are expected to average $42 per cwt, almost 28 percent below a year earlier. For the year, prices should average about $43 per cwt, 10 percent below the average price in 2019.
Projections for 2021
The virus will likely constrain processing plant throughput to some degree into 2021, with total pork production forecast at about 28.2 billion pounds, almost 3 percent above the current 2020 forecast.
Exports in 2021 are expected to rebound modestly to 7.3 billion pounds, about 2 percent higher than the 2020 forecast.
For the year in total, 2021 prices of 51-52 percent lean hogs are expected to average 46.75 per cwt, more than 8 percent higher than average prices this year.
May 18, 2020/ USDA/ United States.
https://usda.library.cornell.edu/
