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The past month has seen escalating concerns about the global spread of the coronavirus and increasing uncertainty about the longer-term implications for production and consumption. Although import buying of some commodities has accelerated in recent weeks, logistical challenges are being reported as movement constraints and quarantine measures become widespread. Transportation restrictions could also hamper the distribution of farm inputs and disrupt spring fieldwork, however, at this stage, the Council assumes that planting intentions will be fulfilled. Nevertheless, the Council's projections for supply and demand are tentative until the progress and duration of the pandemic become clearer.
The forecast for world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2019/20 is lifted by 3m t m/m (month-on-month) to 2,175m, mainly because of an adjustment for maize output in the EU.
Reflecting downgrades for Brazil and Argentina, the 2019/20 world soyabean production forecast is cut by 4m t, to 341m, a 5% y/y fall. Assuming a rebound in US acreage, world output in 2020/21 is predicted to expand by 7% y/y.
In 2020/21, global total grains production is projected to expand to 2,223m t, up by 2% y/y and an all-time high. This mainly linked to a drop in maize inventories in China, which more than offsets an accumulation of that grain in the USA. Wheat stocks are predicted at an all-time high, led by expansions in China and India. Growth of 2% is envisaged for total grains trade, with shipments of maize, wheat and sorghum accelerating.
March 26, 2020/ International Grains Council/ United Kingdom.
http://www.igc.int/
