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Brazil's pork exports should close 2021 with over 11% growth with respect to last year, reaching a little over 1 million tons. However, there was a significant decline in shipments in the month of November, largely due to a drop in exports to China, which totaled just 20.3 thousand tons last month, the worst monthly result since April 2019 for this important destination. This decline in shipments to China can be attributed to the increased supply of pork in the country.
In light of this decrease in pork exports to China in recent months, it is natural that there is concern about the prospects for shipments in 2022, however, the causes of this reduction were not only related to the liquidation of herds due to the persistence of African swine fever (ASF) in China, but also because Chinese pig farmers were operating in the red. It is expected that in 2022, especially in the second half of the year, this reduction in herds will result in a drop in supply, leading to a further increase in pork exports to China.
With regards to the first half of 2022, the tendency seen in the last few years has been a reduced rhythm of exports to China in the first months of the year. The reopening of the Russian market, which announced a quota (zero tariffs) of 100 thousand tons for Brazil to export in the first semester of next year may help.
In Brazil's domestic market, the offer exceeds the demand, and the end-of-the-year expected rise in pork prices did not come. Pig farmers are likely to close 2021 with negative financial margins.
December 13, 2021/ ABCS/ Brazil.
https://abcs.org.br/
