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Japan has recently ratified numerous trade agreements that will virtually remove the three tariff mechanisms (gate-price, ad-valorem, and safeguard) previously employed on most pork product imports. Japan has ratified trade agreements with the United States, European Union (EU), United Kingdom (UK), and Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) countries, which comprises Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam.
The changes outlined in Japan’s recent trade agreements could greatly improve the competitiveness of trade agreement partner countries in Japan’s pork market. This potential boost in foreign competitiveness could result in lower domestic production, higher import volumes, and thus increased availability of lower-cost foreign pork for Japanese consumers.
The estimated changes in value in 2028, relative to the 2018 baseline, are as follows:
- By 2028, Japan’s pork imports would increase by 3.6% for carcasses and half-carcasses, 12.2% for unprocessed meat cuts, and 13.9% for processed pork products.
- Japan’s domestic production would decrease by 4.2, 11.6, and 11.8% for carcasses and half-carcasses, unprocessed meat cuts, and processed pork products, respectively.
- Total pork exports to Japan would increase in value (in millions) by $281.0, $244.5, $232.8, and $0.21 for the United States, EU, CPTPP, and UK, respectively.
If the U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement (USJTA) agreement did not exist, the United States would be subject to Japan’s WTO gate price tariff system. In this hypothetical scenario, results indicate that the United States would lose a large portion of its market share to Japan’s other trade agreement partners, with the 2028 U.S. market share falling from 34 to 23%. The total value of U.S. pork exports to Japan also would decline by $385.9 million from 2018 levels.
May 2023/ USDA/ United States.
https://www.ers.usda.gov
