0
Swine numbers and pork production
Japan’s 2022 beginning swine herd is projected at 9.11 million head, down roughly two percent from 2021 beginning stocks, reflecting a return to normal slaughter rates and low 2021 sow stocks. The 2021 total beginning stocks are revised upwards by two percent based on official MAFF data, which points to a faster than expected recovery from classical swine fever (CSF) outbreaks which started in September 2018. It is forecast that 2022 sow beginning stocks will increase from 2021 as operators continue to rebuild herd sizes. Strong demand for domestic pork will drive an increase of slaughter and pork production in 2022.
According to MAFF statistics, as of February 1, there were 3,850 hog operations, down 11 percent from 2019. Hog operators struggle to find successors, resulting in ongoing declines in the number of operations. While the average operation size continues to grow, up 14 percent since 2019, the total number of integrated hog operations are decreasing regardless of farm size.
According to Japan Customs, Japan’s swine imports in the first half of 2021 were 267 head, down 80 percent from 2020, with no imports from Denmark. Swine imports are anticipated to rebound when flight schedules return to normal and will accelerate the rebuilding of the farm-based hog population in 2022. It is estimated that 2022 pork production will be up from 2021, reflecting steady demand for domestic pork, especially in the retail sector.
Total slaughter numbers in the first six months of 2021 were up 1.4 percent from 2020. The slaughter speed slowed in June due to the CSF outbreak in the first half of 2021, resulting in a midyear carcass price spike. Carcass prices in the first half of 2021 were lower than 2020 but still above the five-year average.
Pork consumption
Pork consumption in 2022 is expected to increase from 2021 as the Government of Japan eases COVID-19 related movement restrictions, leading to increased food service consumption. Food service demand for pork in 2021 remains stagnate as COVID-19 cases rise and the Government of Japan has implemented measures to restrict movement in large, urban areas. Conversely, in the first months of 2021, household demand, which accounts for 50 percent of Japan’s pork consumption, remained as strong as 2020 consumption. With more at-home consumption, demand for easy to prepare and products with a long shelf life, like ham and sausage, has grown but remained largely stable throughout the COVID-19 pandemic.
Pork trade
Pork imports are expected to increase in 2022 after dampened demand from the food service industry and global freight constraints resulted in a large decline in 2021. Total imports in the first half of 2021 decreased by 5 percent from 2020 especially frozen pork, largely used by the food service industries, was down by 21 percent. Industry attributes the low import numbers to high global prices for frozen pork. In response, Japanese importers relied on stocks and imported just enough to cover current demand, which drove imports from Europe down 12 percent. This trend is likely to continue in the second half of 2021. Industry also expects U.S. chilled pork prices to remain high due to a constrained supply of products intended for the Japan market. COVID-19 related countermeasures in the United States have slowed production of labor-intensive products, of which Japan is a major importer. Industry sources also attribute reduced imports to the tight global freight market and container shortage at western ports in the United States. As the retail demand in Japan for imported chilled pork remains strong, Japanese importers also project imports to increase in 2022 as port conditions improve and prices drop. Shipping constraints have also affected the import of prepared or preserved pork, including ground seasoned pork, despite strong household demand for these products. FAS/Tokyo projects that the total pork imports in 2022 will rebound from the decline in 2021 but remain lower than pre-pandemic levels until food service demand fully recovers.
August 19, 2021/ USDA/ United States.
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/
