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As of February 1, 2023, Japan’s swine population increased slightly, by 0.4%, from 2022, even though the total number of hog operators shrank by 6% as many smaller to medium-sized hog farm operators exited the market or merged.
Inflating production costs remains a problem. In the three-year period ending in May 2023, average feed costs were up by 51%. Support payments by MAFF offset some of the higher costs. It also helps that carcass prices are at historically high levels. Meat industries expect strong domestic retail demand for pork will continue to support carcass prices.
In the first half of 2023, hogs were finished to heavier weights which reduced total slaughters by 2%. In the Japanese market, heavier carcasses can command a premium price per kilo, which offsets the cost of the additional feed required. High carcass prices resulted in the 6-month average carcass weight rising to 79.5 kg.
In 2023, the impact of Classical Swine Fever has been minor: only two cases were reported, with just 2,950 heads culled.
Retail sales of pork and pork products from January until June in 2023 exceeded pre-COVID-19 levels. Compared to 2019, pork consumption in 2022 and through the first 5 months of 2023 increased 7% in volume, even though retail prices were higher by 12% in 2022 and 16% in 2023.
Japan’s pork imports in 2023 are dipping below 2022 levels, which had spiked with imports of discounted Spanish frozen pork. Imports of chilled pork are balanced with current demands: some of the substitution from beef to pork is offset by higher import costs resulting from the weak yen in 2022 and 2023. On the other hand, high domestic carcass prices also drive demand to use imported pork, so import demand should remain strong through the end of 2023. Imports of prepared pork products in the first 6-months of 2023 are flat year on year, but FAS/Tokyo projects growth ahead in 2023 and 2024 as tariff cuts take effect, especially for ground seasoned pork (GSP), which is mainly intended for sausage manufacturing.
August 18, 2023/ USDA/ United States. https://apps.fas.usda.gov
