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The use of EU arable land is expected to partially change towards 2035. Land-use shifts from cereals and rapeseed to soya beans, other oilseeds, and pulses are projected, driven by lower demand for cereals for feed and biofuel. The area of agricultural land under permanent crops is expected to increase, while permanent grassland and fallow land could remain stable.
Yields of cereals and oilseeds are projected to marginally increase by 2035, thanks to positive developments in precision farming, digitalisation, and improved soil health, compensating for climate change, reduced availability, and affordability of agricultural inputs.
By 2035, overall EU cereal production is projected to be 273.8 million t (1.1% above 2022-2024). Cereal production is expected to be driven by maize (63.2 million t) and barley (51 million t), while wheat production is expected to pick up after a decline in 2024. Finally, sugar production is expected to slowly decline by 2035, driven by a decrease in sugar beet yield and consumers shifting to diets with a lower sugar intake.
Production of oilseeds and protein crops is projected to increase to 34.9 million t by 2035. The growth of oilseed production is expected to be driven by a 22% increase in soya bean production compared to 2022-2024 (mainly on larger area cultivated), propelled by a supportive EU policy and expectations of an increase in labeled products (GM-free). Sunflower seed production is projected to increase by 1% to 9.6 million t in 2035. The production of pulses is projected to expand by 9.9%, reaching 4.9 million t by 2035. Rapeseed production is projected to decline by -10% by 2035 (from 18.8 million t in 2022-2024), due to lower demand for biofuels.
December 11, 2024/ EC (2024), EU agricultural outlook, 2024-2035.
European Commission, DG Agriculture and Rural Development, Brussels.
https://agriculture.ec.europa.eu/
