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New reports from the U.S. National Pork Board demonstrate opportunities that may diversify U.S. pork exports in Vietnam and the Philippines. The reports also show how African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks in Asia have impacted both countries’ pork industries and related supply chains. The market assessments were prepared by Gira, a global research firm, with funding from the Pork Checkoff and the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Emerging Markets Program.
According to Gira’s research, as Vietnam and the Philippines recover from COVID-19 and ASF outbreaks, pork consumption and import demand will increase. This projected increase is counter to other key markets, where pork consumption is expected to shrink by 2030. The predicted growth in these two markets is based on the rise in the middle classes and pork’s popularity in Vietnamese and Filipino cuisines.
Facts about Vietnam:
- Pork is the most common protein in Vietnamese cuisine.Total pork consumption in the country has more than tripled, from 31 pounds to 72 pounds*, since 2000.
- The country’s population will soon reach 100 million, and is one of the fastest-growing economies in the world – even faster than China.
- The Vietnamese population is quickly becoming urban, as new jobs are drawing rural residents into cities with higher wages, which will increase demand for pork.
- In Vietnam, complete recovery to pre-ASF production levels will not be achieved until after 2025, creating an opportunity for imports to help meet demand.
Source: Vietnam Market Assessment: 10 Year Foresight Analysis of Pork and Processed Pork Product Consumption prepared by Gira.
Facts about the Philippines:
- Pork is prized in the Filipino culture – both for special occasions and as an everyday staple – with consumption at 40 pounds* per capita.
- Rising demand for pork, fueled by an expanding population and increasing disposable incomes are significant drivers for the future.
- By 2028, a majority of Filipino residents will be urban. This change will help drive growth for imported pork as urban consumers have higher incomes, consume more meat and are exposed to modern retail.
- The Filipino pork sector will not fully recover from the ASF outbreak until after 2030, requiring a reliable source of imports to meet domestic demand
Source: Philippines Market Assessment: 10 Year Foresight Analysis of Pork and Processed Pork Product Consumption prepared by Gira
According to the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF), exports accounted for nearly 30% of U.S. pork production from January to September, with over 20% of production exported to just three markets – China, Mexico and Japan.
The full reports are available for download at pork.to/international.
*Carcass Weight Equivalent (CWE)
December 8, 2020/ National Pork Board/ United States.
https://www.pork.org/
