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The effects of African Swine Fever (ASF) on feed demand may not be as severe as initially forecast, as the Philippine government's measures on the movement of hogs, pork products, and feed ingredients slow ASF’s spread. Post therefore lowers its MY 2019/2020 feed wheat consumption estimate from a decline of 300,000 MT to 100,000 MT. The Philippines has been successful in limiting the disease’s spread to the island of Luzon, although key production areas remain affected and contacts report downward pressure on feed and pork demand.
The effect on feed wheat consumption is likely to be lower than Post’s previous update, due to several factors. One industry contact noted that the decrease in hog feed demand will be partially offset by the switching of backyard hog farmers from swill to commercial feeding. Another contact expects stronger feed demand from hog raisers in the Visayas and Mindanao group of islands, as they ramp up production to serve the pork needs of Luzon. While still another expects a smaller decrease in hog feed consumption, citing the relatively small number of affected hogs.
According to PSA statistics, corn production in the third quarter of 2019 increased 23.5 percent year-on year, keeping pace with Post’s previous forecast of approximately 8.1 million MT. Wider harvested areas were noted in Cagayan Valley, as corn farmers recovered from the September 2019 damages brought by Typhoon Mangkhut.
According to the latest PSA data, the average farmgate price of yellow corn in September 2019 was P12.27 ($0.25) per kilo, 6 percent lower than the P13.12 ($0.26) average ex-farm price in August and 3 percent lower than the P14.86 ($0.30) per kilo average price a year ago. The poor quality of grains and low buying price offered by traders reportedly pulled down the price of corn.
December 19, 2019 /USDA/ Philippines.
https://www.fas.usda.gov/
