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Chinese pork production expected to decrease in 2024

Swine and pork production in 2024 is forecast to decline to due to lower sow inventories in 2023.

Swine production in 2024 is forecast to decline by 1% year-on-year to 695 million head due to lower sow inventories in 2023. In 2023, low swine and pork prices caused losses across the swine breeding industry. Many companies needed to sell swine to supplement cash flow. Since early 2023, industry members have been reducing production capacity (sow inventory) and this is expected to last through the third quarter owing to weak consumption. In 2023, low prices and culling as well as concerns over persistent and endemic animal disease occurrences, including African Swine Fever (ASF), contributed to “panic” sales that resulted in animals going to slaughter before ideal market weights. The disease situation is expected to persist in 2024.

Live swine imports in 2024 are forecast to grow from 5,000 to 6,000 head with industry interest in herd expansion. This remains low in comparison with previous years. In 2024, the major live swine suppliers are expected to remain the United States, France, and Denmark.

The export of live swine in 2024 is forecast to grow to 1.2 million head, 4% higher than the 2023 estimate. Hong Kong and Macao remain the sole destinations. Exported live swine is typically for immediate slaughter and consumed as fresh pork.

Pork production in 2024 is forecast to decline 1% to 55.95 million metric ton (MMT) from lower slaughter and lower inventory of fattened swine. Producers are expected to continue managing potential animal disease outbreaks without significantly affecting overall production volumes.

Pork consumption in 2024 is expected to decline 1% year-on-year to 58.15 MMT due to lower domestic production. In 2023, higher consumption was mainly from higher domestic supplies, however several COVID outbreaks across the country in 2023 and a slowing economy created weak demand and an oversupply of pork in the first half (H1) of 2023. In 2024, China is expected to continue to emphasize and prioritize stable pork prices.

Pork imports in 2024 are expected to grow slightly to 2.32 MMT due to lower domestic production, In 2023, pork imports are estimated at 2.3 MMT with 8% growth year-over-year.

In 2024, China's pork exports are forecast to reach 120 thousand MT, an increase of 14% over 2023. Hong Kong and Japan are expected to remain the two major export destinations for pork products.