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The "Medium-term prospects for EU agricultural markets and income 2016-2026" presents the medium-term outlook for the major EU agricultural commodity markets and agricultural income to 2026, based on a set of coherent macroeconomic assumptions deemed most plausible at the time of the analysis.
According to prospects, world population and income growth are expected to support higher global meat demand and contribute to higher EU meat exports. World meat consumption is expected to increase by 13.5% , or 42.6 million tonnes, between 2016 and 2026 . This is less than in the previous decade, but still almost equivalent to a year’s total meat production in the EU. Thanks to the economic recovery and slightly lower prices, overall meat consumption per capita in the EU recovered by an unexpected 1.9 kg in 2015. The increase is expected to continue at a slower pace in 2016, to reach 68.4 kg /ca (retail weight). By the end of the outlook period, per capita consumption is expected to remain stable, with poultry taking small proportions of market share from other meats. Still, 90 % of total EU meat production will go to EU consumers.
Following a strong recovery in 2014 and 2015, pigmeat production is now expected to expand only marginally (by less than 1.3 % by 2026 compared to its 2016 high levels). In the context of only limited increase in domestic consumption, pigmeat exports are expected to grow steadily, supported by sustained world demand and low feed prices. Price competition from the USA and Brazil is expected to be strong, however. After the implementation of the new animal welfare rules in the sector, pigmeat production recovered remarkably in 2014 and 2015, after 2 years of relatively high prices. Pigmeat production is expected to increase only marginally over the coming decade (+0.1 % a year) because of only marginal increase in EU consumption. However, EU pigmeat exports are expected to grow, supported by sustained world demand and favourable feed prices but at competitive international pigmeat prices.
Tuesday December 6, 2016/ EC/ European Union.
https://ec.europa.eu/agriculture
