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Rising disease pressures continue to challenge the global market. While African swine fever (ASF) continues to impact pork production in Asia and Europe, as well as global trade flows, Covid-19 keeps affecting the whole supply chain, from producers to consumers. However, demand is expected to rebound in most regions in 2021 due to economic recovery.
Global pork supply will grow in Asia and North and South America, but face more challenges in Europe. “While China continues to dominate global trade, China’s expected reduction in imports in 2021 will have ramifications for the rest of the world, especially in Europe, where trade bans on Germany are boosting local supply and weighing on the market,” according to Chenjun Pan, Senior Analyst – Animal Protein.
These are the main highlights:
- China: With rising production, China’s imports will decline from the record high of 2020, impacting the rest of the world.
- US: Strong domestic and export demand is supporting continued strength in hog prices. Rising feed and regulatory costs could pressure margins.
- Europe: Pork production is expected to be flat or down slightly in 2021, on lower export demand, a slow recovery of local demand due to Covid-19, and ongoing ASF-threats in eastern Europe and Germany.
- Brazil: Hog production is expected to increase by 2.5% in 2021 in response to local demand recovery and another strong year for exports.
February 2021/ Rabobank. https://research.rabobank.com
