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A better cost environment and resilient demand are supporting the outlook for global pork markets. Lower feed costs will support farming expansion, and pork consumption in the second half of 2024 should improve due to seasonal demand. However, disease pressures and trade vulnerabilities – including China’s antidumping probe into EU pork imports – remain risk factors.
Global trade is facing challenges from geopolitical dynamics. China’s launch of an antidumping probe into EU pork imports is raising concerns about the vulnerability of global trade. The US-China trade war that started in 2018 has changed part of the global pork trade. The upcoming US presidential election could bring changes in US trade policy and uncertainty to global trade patterns over the coming years, adding complexity to the global market.
Pork supply-demand balance will vary in different regions in the second half of the year. Some countries, such as China, Vietnam, and the Philippines, will see tight pork supply in the second half of the year due to disease outbreaks, while other regions, including the EU and the US, will likely see pork supply increase slightly. Sow herd recovery will likely be faster than expected, especially in the EU and China. Productivity gains will continue despite recurrent disease issues in some regions.
Lower feed costs will support farming expansion. We expect ample global supplies of grains and oilseeds to pressure feed prices in the second half of 2024. This will continue to benefit producers and encourage herd expansion.
Pork demand is resilient. Pork consumption in the second half of the year will improve due to seasonal demand. In addition, easing pork prices in the EU and weak prices in the US should support pork consumption in these regions.
July 2024/ Rabobank.
https://research.rabobank.com
