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In spite of uncertainties posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, FAO’s first forecasts for the 2020/21 season point to a comfortable cereal supply and demand situation. World cereal output is forecast at 2 780 million tonnes (including rice in milled equivalent), nearly 70 million tonnes higher (+2.6%) than in 2019, setting a new record high.
FAO’s first forecast for world coarse grains production in 2020 is pegged at a record 1 513 million tonnes, an increase of 65 million tonnes (4.5 percent) from 2019, almost exclusively due to higher maize production. World maize production in 2020 is forecast at an all-time high of 1 207 million tonnes, 5.6 percent (64.5 million tonnes) higher than the previous peak registered in 2019.
World feed use of coarse grains is forecast to increase to 844 million tonnes in 2020/21, up nearly 26 million tonnes (3.1 percent) from the 2019/20 level. Maize feed use accounts for the majority of this expected annual growth, forecast to rise by around 22 million tonnes (3.3 percent) in 2020/21 to 685 million tonnes. China (mainland), the world’s largest user of maize for feed, is foreseen to increase its maize feed utilization by 5 million tonnes (3.1 percent) in 2020/21, following two consecutive years of decreases as a result of significantly reduced swine herds due to the devastating impact of African Swine Fever (ASF). A sizeable annual growth of nearly 9 million tonnes (6.1 percent) in maize feed use is also expected in the USA in 2020/21, after the closure of several slaughterhouses in the country in early 2020 in response to the spread of COVID-19, which caused a temporary slowdown in meat production.
FAO’s latest 2019/20 forecasts for oilseeds and derived products point towards a tightening supply-demand situation, triggered by a marked contraction in production. Tentative forecasts for 2020/21 suggest that supplies could remain tight relative to demand. In 2019/20, oilcrop production is expected to decline 4.6% to 584.3 million tonnes from the previous season’s record level of 612.3 million tonnes, with pronounced drops in soybean and rapeseed outweighing gains in the other crops.
FAO. 2020. Food Outlook – Biannual Report on Global Food Markets: June 2020. Food Outlook, 1. Rome.
https://doi.org/10.4060/ca9509en
