In spite of uncertainties posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, FAO’s first forecasts for the 2020/21 season point to a comfortable cereal supply and demand situation. World cereal output is forecast at 2 780 million tonnes (including rice in milled equivalent), nearly 70 million tonnes higher (+2.6%) than in 2019, setting a new record high.
FAO’s first forecast for world coarse grains production in 2020 is pegged at a record 1 513 million tonnes, an increase of 65 million tonnes (4.5 percent) from 2019, almost exclusively due to higher maize production. World maize production in 2020 is forecast at an all-time high of 1 207 million tonnes, 5.6 percent (64.5 million tonnes) higher than the previous peak registered in 2019.
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World feed use of coarse grains is forecast to increase to 844 million tonnes in 2020/21, up nearly 26 million tonnes (3.1 percent) from the 2019/20 level. Maize feed use accounts for the majority of this expected annual growth, forecast to rise by around 22 million tonnes (3.3 percent) in 2020/21 to 685 million tonnes. China (mainland), the world’s largest user of maize for feed, is foreseen to increase its maize feed utilization by 5 million tonnes (3.1 percent) in 2020/21, following two consecutive years of decreases as a result of significantly reduced swine herds due to the devastating impact of African Swine Fever (ASF). A sizeable annual growth of nearly 9 million tonnes (6.1 percent) in maize feed use is also expected in the USA in 2020/21, after the closure of several slaughterhouses in the country in early 2020 in response to the spread of COVID-19, which caused a temporary slowdown in meat production.
FAO’s latest 2019/20 forecasts for oilseeds and derived products point towards a tightening supply-demand situation, triggered by a marked contraction in production. Tentative forecasts for 2020/21 suggest that supplies could remain tight relative to demand. In 2019/20, oilcrop production is expected to decline 4.6% to 584.3 million tonnes from the previous season’s record level of 612.3 million tonnes, with pronounced drops in soybean and rapeseed outweighing gains in the other crops.
FAO. 2020. Food Outlook – Biannual Report on Global Food Markets: June 2020. Food Outlook, 1. Rome.
https://doi.org/10.4060/ca9509en