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Boosted by anticipated better yields, the International Grains Council's forecast for global total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2024/25 is revised upwards to a new all-time peak of 2,321 million tonnes (mt), up by 1% year-on-year. Incorporating the latest acreage estimates and improved yield prospects in some countries, outlooks for wheat (North America, Pakistan, Kazakhstan) and maize (US) harvests are revised higher. Despite smaller estimated opening inventories and a modest uplift in projected demand, the figure for carryover stocks (aggregate of respective local marketing years) is 586 million tonnes, a 10-year low.
With a heavy crop boosting availabilities in 2023/24, global soybean inventories are seen accumulating solidly, including gains in key exporters. While trade is set to edge lower, volumes would be markedly above average. Tied to bumper crops in major suppliers, production is seen at a peak of 415 million tonnes (+6%), with utilization and reserves also pegged at fresh highs. Trade is projected to expand by 3% year-on-year on larger shipments (177 million tonnes), with an uptick in demand from China, Europe, and Africa anticipated. In respective local marketing years, the US and Brazil are expected to dispatch more.
Linked to gains in key exporters, world rice production in 2023/24 is estimated to have grown by 1%, to a new peak. With consumption edging lower, combined end-season inventories are pegged 2m t higher year-on-year, including solid accumulation in India, still the dominant exporter. Global output is projected to increase to a new high in 2024/25, including further gains in exporting countries, while total use is seen advancing by 1% as stocks edge up. Trade is projected to move above 53 million tonnes in 2025, marginally up year-on-year, with the Council making an allowance for larger Indian dispatches.
July 18, 2024/ International Grains Council.
https://www.igc.int/
