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Russia will produce 4.3 million tons of pork (slaughter weight) this year, which is 9.7% more than last year, predicts the National Union of Pig Breeders.
According to the union's general director, Yuri Kovalev, at the international conference "Russian pig farming 2020-2025," the growth in agricultural enterprises will be 11.8% higher, at 3.8 million tons. "The total increase in production may exceed 380 thousand tons, which is two times more than in 2019," he said. For private farms, a 4.2% decline is forecasted to 455.5 thousand tons. Farmers' production will also decline by 5.8%, to 38 thousand tons.
According to the union's forecast, the export of pork (including fat and offal) this year will increase by almost 80 thousand tons (74%) and will reach 188 thousand tons. Together with a decrease in imports by 73 thousand tons, 153 thousand tons of pork will be "removed" from the market.
In value terms, pork exports will grow by 80%, to $316 million, and this will also happen due to an increase in the share of meat in the total structure of pork exports, which also includes pork fat and offal. At the same time, in the total structure of the value of meat exports, the share of pig products will reach 37%. In general, the Union estimates the cost of meat exports this year at $845 million (506 thousand tons), which is 45% (50%) more than last year.
According to the union, this year Russian pork was exported to 20 countries globally. Moreover, 90% of supplies went to Vietnam (an increase to 57 thousand tons from 11.3 thousand tons last year), Hong Kong (49.9 thousand tons against 26.9 thousand tons), Ukraine (up to 39.6 thousand tons tons against 30.3 thousand tons) and Belarus (reduction to 22.5 thousand tons from 23.6 thousand tons).
As noted by Kovalev, the "unloading" of the market in the conditions of its oversaturation, as well as a number of other factors contributed to the growth in demand for pork in the third quarter and, accordingly, to the rise in prices. As a result, if earlier the union predicted a 10% decrease in wholesale prices for pigs by the end of the year, the new estimate is no more than 3%, he said.
According to the union's forecast, this will allow the industry to retain at least 33.5 billion rubles in revenues.
December 4, 2020/ Finmarket/ Russia.
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