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Due to COVID-19 disruptions in 2020, the slaughtering statistics in the first half of 2021 show a significant production increase in major producing countries: ES (+4.1% year-on-year), NL (+9.9%), DK (+10%), PL (+5.7%) and IT (+11%). In Germany, the loss of the Chinese market because of ASF and the resulting price decline has already had an impact on production (-1.2%). Overall, the EU pigmeat production increased by 466 000 t in the first half of 2021 (+4.1% year-on-year).
In response to this situation, and faced with increasing feed costs, the EU pigmeat sector is expected to react by slowing down the production increase. The 2021 yearly production growth is forecast at +1.7% year-on-year. In 2022, that trend could continue, with a projected yearly growth of +0.6%.
EU pigmeat prices peaked in June and since then have fallen steadily, down to almost EUR 140/100 kg in the month of September. Those low prices negatively impact the EU pig farmers’ margins but give EU pigmeat a comparative advantage on the world markets.
EU exports to China, the EU pigmeat main destination, continued to increase in the first half of 2021 (+157 000 t or +14% year-on-year). EU exports also significantly changed to other destinations: Asia (Philippines +260%, Vietnam +100% - as ASF reduced domestic production in both countries, Hong Kong +38%), America (Chile +1600%, the US +37%), Oceania (New Zealand +72%, Australia +42%), Ukraine (+18%), the UK (-10%) and to Japan (-13%, partly due to restrictions in foodservices ahead of the Olympics). In volume, the net increase of EU pigmeat exports to those destinations amounted to 121 000 t year-on-year (+14%).
Overall, EU pigmeat exports are projected to remain dynamic, with a +6% increase in 2021 and +7% in 2022. The EU export situation will be strongly influenced by the developments on the Chinese market, which has entered a situation of oversupply following a temporary reduction in stocks, in part to upgrade the sow herd. China should continue heading towards more self-sufficiency in 2022.
October 2021/ European Commission/ European Union.
https://ec.europa.eu
