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In the first half of 2024, EU pigmeat production went up by 1.7% year-on-year. The biggest increases were recorded in Poland with 77,000 t (+9%), in Hungary with 18,000 t (+8.3%), and in Germany with 18,000 t (+0.9%), although production declined in Spain by 5,000 t (0.2%). In the same period, fewer animals were slaughtered in Denmark, but average carcass weights increased (+17,000 t, +2.5% year-on-year). The increase in EU supply combined with limited demand led to a decline in domestic prices from May 2024, even though the average quotation remained significantly above the 5-year average. As both feed and piglet prices decreased, margins remained reasonably positive in the first half of the year. African swine fever outbreaks remain a risk for production. Overall, a production decrease of 0.5% is expected for 2024 and a further drop by another 0.2% for 2025 year-on-year.
Consumption has been stable so far in 2024, without the usual increase in the summer months. EU per capita consumption is expected to decrease further to 30.9 kg by year-end (-0.4% year-on-year). For 2025, EU per capita consumption is expected to stabilize at 30.9 kg year-on-year.
Less competitive EU pigmeat prices make exports to the global market a real challenge. In the first half of 2024, EU exports recorded a decline of 6% year-on-year, mainly to China (-27%). In addition, exports to the UK decreased in Jan-June (3% year-on-year). Strong price competition from Brazil and the US, created challenges for EU exports to some high-value markets (Japan, Australia), although there were gains in South Korea and lower-value markets such as the Philippines and Viet Nam. Overall. EU exports in 2024 could be down by 2.5% year-on-year. If the price gap between EU and international competitors continues to decrease, this could boost EU exports on the international market. Overall, for 2025 a decrease of 2% is expected year-on-year. With possible countervailing duties from China, pigmeat exports in 2025 could further decline. Total EU pigmeat imports were 53,711 t in Jan-June 2024 (+1% year-on-year). Imports from the UK account for about 2/3 of total EU pigmeat imports and decreased by 2.2% in the same period. At the same time, imports from Chile increased by 8,600 t (+173%) due to the new FTA between Chile and EU. However, with the expectation of a declining UK pigmeat demand in 2025, EU imports could decline by 2% in 2025.
October 8, 2024/ European Commission/ European Union.
https://agriculture.ec.europa.eu
