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Spain’s swine sector expects a continued downward trend in swine and pork production in 2023 and 2024 to slightly less than 5 million tons of pork and below 55 million heads slaughtered.
Industry sources forecast declines in the swine herd, numbers of sows, and pig crop in Spain in 2023 and 2024 after hitting record levels in 2022. The reduction in sows and pig crop in 2023 is partially compensated by increased EU imports of piglets, mainly from the Netherlands and Portugal, which may continue in 2024.
According to the sector, the main driver to this reduction other than the expected decline in pork exports to China and other non-EU markets is the Spanish Royal Decree 159/2023 on Animal Welfare, which includes stricter requirements for sows and pigs than the EU regulation. Existing farms will have two years to make the adaptations. Due to these adjustments, sow herd and slaughter may continue to decline in 2023 and 2024, with higher carcass weights needed to reach the level of pork production slightly below five million tons. The sector expects another increase in sow slaughter in 2023.
In 2022, according to the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture, fresh pork meat consumption in Spanish households declined by almost 11% due to increasing pork prices. In early 2023, Spain adopted measures to alleviate food inflation by reducing the value-added tax (VAT) from 4 to 0 percent in basic food products (excluding meat products) until December 2023. However, the increase in Hotels, Restaurants, and Institutions (HRI) and tourism rebounding to pre-pandemic levels may alleviate the reduction in total domestic pork consumption.
The pork industry estimates that in 2023, Spanish pork sales to non-EU markets will continue to decline in volume because of reduced demand from China and the increase in Spanish pork prices. Exports to the EU may remain strong due to the shortage of pork meat in other Member States. During the first half of 2023, Spanish pork exports rose in value by 13.5% due to the increase in the pork unit value, compensating for the 9% decline in volume.
Regarding imports, other EU Member States are the main pork suppliers to Spain. Spain’s pork imports from non-EU markets account for only two percent of total imports. With the price hikes in both Spanish and EU pork, Spain’s pork imports from non-EU markets with lower pork prices may continue to increase, with product mainly destined for pork processing plants.
September 6, 2023/ USDA/ United States.
https://apps.fas.usda.gov
