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Lower sow inventories in 2024 will lead to a decline in the number of piglets that will grow into hogs for consumption. In addition, pork production in the second half of 2025 is expected to be higher than in the first half of 2025, as the sow inventory will recover by the end of 2024. This increase in production is due to the reaction of pig producers and large companies to recent increases in pig prices.
Producers have developed techniques to manage and control African Swine Fever. According to USDA sources, despite sporadic outbreaks of ASF, the effect on swine production has been limited. In addition, the proportion of production in the hands of large swine producers is increasing, and these companies are better prepared for ASF.
Reduced pork consumption due to changes in diets
Lower pork consumption in 2025 is expected mainly due to changes in diets. Pork remains a staple meat, but consumers are increasingly exposed to other animal protein sources, such as beef, poultry, and seafood, many of which are perceived to be healthier. Over the past 14 years, total meat consumption in China has grown by nearly 20% due to demographic changes, protein availability, increased purchasing power, improvements in the cold chain, and changes in consumer preferences that include some shifts in meat consumption. However, the share of pork in China's meat consumption has declined, with this trend expected to continue to 2025.
Pork imports
Pork imports in 2025 will remain stable. Most consumers prefer fresh/chilled pork to frozen pork due to perceptions about taste and nutritional value. Prices for imported frozen pork are generally lower than domestic pork and most importers react to these price signals. With weaker pork demand in 2025, it is expected that reductions in consumption will be mainly due to domestic pork and that some imports of competitively priced frozen pork may go into China's strategic domestic reserves.
The main pork suppliers to China are Spain, Brazil, Denmark, the Netherlands, Canada, and the United States. USDA sources indicate that prices become an important consideration for pork imports.
Pork exports
Pork exports are forecast to grow marginally year on year by 2025 as demand in China's export markets, mainly Hong Kong and Japan, are considered mature markets. China mainly exports prepared, frozen, and fresh pork to Hong Kong and prepared pork to Japan.
In the first half of 2024, exports grew marginally as demand for prepared and frozen pork to Hong Kong recovered. In 2025, Hong Kong pork demand is forecast to continue, Hong Kong pork demand could be met by live pigs for profit.
August 19, 2024/ USDA/ United States.
https://apps.fas.usda.gov
