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African swine fever (ASF) arrived in Russia in 2007, spreading to Ukraine in 2012 and Belarus in 2013. In 2014, the virus was confirmed in wild boar and domestic pigs in Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Poland. Since then, outbreaks have affected new regions every year: the Czech Republic and Romania in 2017, Hungary, Belgium, and Bulgaria in 2018, and Slovakia and Serbia in 2019. The disease continued to progress, reaching Greece and Germany in 2020, North Macedonia and Italy in 2022, and Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo, Sweden, Montenegro, and Albania between 2023 and 2024.
Domestic pigs
Since the emergence of the disease in Europe, a steady increase in the number of outbreaks was observed until 2023, when a historical peak was reached with 4,513 outbreaks, due to the emergence of the disease in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Croatia. However, 2024 saw a dramatic decline to a total of 752 cases.
The most critical years were from 2018 to 2023. During this period, ASF spread rapidly, affecting mainly Eastern Europe, with major peaks in countries such as Romania, Bosnia, and Croatia.
Annual evolution of total African swine fever outbreaks in domestic pigs in European countries between 2014 and 2024.
Romania is the country with the highest number of total outbreaks, with the most critical years being 2018 (1,163 outbreaks) and 2019 (1,724 outbreaks). In 2023, it reported 740 outbreaks, still high but lower compared to previous years. In 2024 it had the lowest number of outbreaks since confirming the presence of the disease (215).
Bosnia-Herzegovina and Croatia stand out for massive outbreaks in 2023, with 1,508 and 1,124 outbreaks, respectively, although both experienced a significant decrease to 33 and 6 outbreaks in 2024.
Poland shows a stable trend with moderate increases over time, peaking in 2021 (124 outbreaks) and ending with 44 outbreaks in 2024.
Serbia also experienced a notable recent increase, with 991 outbreaks in 2023 and 304 in 2024.
Bulgaria, Estonia, and Latvia have reported low numbers, with cases scattered throughout the period. Bulgaria, for example, peaked at 44 outbreaks in 2019 and ended with only 1 outbreak in 2024.
Moldova, Greece, and Slovakia presented marginal and sporadic figures, without becoming significant foci of the disease.
Wild boar
ASF in wild boar spread alarmingly in Europe over the last decade. Since the first reports in 2014 with 334 cases, the disease has shown continuous growth, reaching its highest peak in 2021, with 12,150 reported cases. Although outbreaks declined in subsequent years, numbers remained high in 2023 (7,903) and 2024 (7,672), evidence that the virus still poses a serious threat to wildlife and economies in the region.
The years 2020 and 2021 were the most critical. During this period, ASF outbreaks in wild boar reached unprecedented levels, with more than 10,000 cases per year in Europe. However, from 2022 onwards, a moderate but sustained decline is observed although the 2023 and 2024 levels (around 7,700 cases per year) remain significantly high.
Annual evolution of total African swine fever cases in wild boar in European countries between 2014 and 2024.
Poland leads the total number of cases which reached an all-time high in 2020 (4,070 cases) and maintained worrying figures in 2021 (3,221 cases) and 2024 (2,244 cases). This country has been the main epicenter of the virus throughout the decade with a total of more than 20,000 confirmed cases.
Hungary saw a significant increase starting in 2018, reaching 4,001 cases in 2020. Although outbreaks decreased in the following years, the country recorded 420 cases in 2024, indicating that the problem persists.
Germany, although it did not report cases until 2020, experienced an exponential increase with 2,525 outbreaks in 2021. In 2024, its numbers (935 cases) remain high, reflecting the difficulty in controlling the disease in the region.
Latvia and Lithuania saw a large impact from the early years. Latvia peaked in 2017 (947 cases), while Lithuania reported 1,443 cases in 2018. In 2024, both countries maintained high numbers, with 940 and 555 cases, respectively.
Bulgaria has seen continuous increases since 2019, reaching 712 cases in 2024, indicating a worrying expansion in the Balkans.
Italy differs from the other countries since for over four decades the disease was endemically present on the Island of Sardinia until January 2022 when the first case was confirmed in the peninsular territory with a remarkable increase in 2023 (1,047 cases), and a peak in 2024 (1,200 cases).
January 28, 2025/ 333 Staff.
