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Meat
According to EC "Short-term outlook for EU agricultural markets in 2020", in 2020 EU meat production is expected to decrease for all meats but pigmeat (+0.5%) : beef (-1.7%), poultry (-2.0%), sheep and goat (-1.5%).
EU meat exports are due to increase in 2020 with the exception of poultry. The increase will be particularly strong for pigmeat due to the accelerating import demand from China which will remain the leading destination for EU pigmeat by far.
Annual meat consumption could decline to 65 4 kg per capita in 2020 2 5 due to a reduction in consumer demand during lockdowns, and subdued domestic availability not compensated by imports
Pigmeat
EU pigmeat production was slightly down in Q 1 (-0.5% year-on-year), driven by declines in PL (-8.2%) and IT (-20%). Growth in production, supported by high prices, was firm in other key EU producers with a rebound in DE (+1.1%) and DK (+2.7%), a continued sharp rise in NL and ES (both +4.4% and benefitting from rebuilt herds) and a modest increase in FR (+0.6%). EU exporters benefited from strong demand from China (except PL due to the spread of ASF), which compensated the fall in demand from other main destinations (Japan, South Korea, US, Philippines and Australia)
Prices, which surged over 2019 when supply tightened and exports rose, started to recede towards the 5 year average when foodservice demand plummeted. Prices have started to rise again in the last weeks , following the rebound of foodservice and world demand. They stabilized at EUR 163/100kg in week 25.
Pigmeat production is expected to increase slightly in 2020 (+0.5%). It will be supported by favourable prices, return of consumer demand and solid export prospects (+10%/2019), mainly to China, and recent investments in the sector, assuming ASF does not spread further within the EU.
Reduction in consumer demand during confinement and overall limited domestic availability will lead the apparent consumption of pigmeat to fall below 30 kg per capita in 2020.
With the persistence of ASF in China, experts anticipate a further herd reduction, an associated drop in pigmeat production of 15 25 % in 2020, and a need for more imports. China’s imports of pigmeat grow massively until April (170 year on year ), benefitting the EU (+150%) and other key suppliers (US, Brazil and Canada). The import shares in China increased for the latter countries (19 %, 9% and 7% respectively) to the detriment of the EU (55%). Demand for offal also increased, but mainly to the benefit of the EU. The unprecedented magnitude of recent trade flows of pigmeat to China may soften in the second half of the year, urging consumption of other (imported) meats.
*To compare pig production data by country and year, visit 333's interactive graph.
6 July 2020/ EC/ European Union.
https://ec.europa.eu/
