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According to AHDB, in 2019, a little under 60% of the pig meat available for consumption in the UK was imported, almost all from the EU. About 30% of domestic pig meat production was exported. The total volume produced in the UK was only equal to about 58% of what the country consumes.
A crucial role played by trade is in balancing the carcase. UK consumers prefer cuts from the leg and loin, and there are not enough pigs in the UK to satisfy that demand. The nation prefers back bacon to belly bacon.
In China, an important export destination, very different parts of the pig are prized. Although, the current reduction in Chinese domestic pig meat production, due to African swine fever, likely means that Chinese import demand covers a wider range of cuts than perhaps is typical.
Implications for lockdown and Brexit
Imported pig meat tends to feature more heavily in the foodservice sector. Any disruption to that market, such as state of national lockdown that closes restaurants, affects imports more than it does demand for British pork. During the first lockdown data from Kantar indicated a rise in pork demand driven by retail, and so British product would also have been in high demand. This is also expected to be the case in the second lockdown this month.
When it comes to Brexit, the UK government has published the external tariffs it intends to apply to imports outside of any free trade agreements. These would apply to EU product in the event that no deal can be reached with the EU. However, upon leaving the customs union, the UK will be free to revise these external tariffs if it wishes. Nonetheless, the tariffs currently set to be in place are high for pig meat products, in the region of 30-40%. As the UK is a significant net importer of pig meat, this would increase the value of domestic pork.
Exports of pig meat and sow meat to the EU would also face similarly high tariffs if no trade deal is agreed. However, an increasing share of exports now go to China instead of the EU (45% in the year to date, including offal).
November 5, 2020/ AHDB/ United Kingdom.
https://ahdb.org.uk/
