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Corn
Globally, the USDA estimates that corn production will reach 1,210.5 million tons (Mt) for the 2021/22 marketing year, which is 7.5% higher compared to 2020/21 (1,125.9 Mt). This increase is explained by greater harvests in Brazil, the European Union, Indonesia, and Pakistan. On the other hand, global trade has decreased, mainly due to lower exports from Serbia and Ukraine, but this is partially offset by an increase in export activity from Brazil, Canada, and India. Likewise, global imports have decreased due to lower demand from China.
For the United States, production remains at around 383.9 Mt, with a 7.1% increase compared to the previous crop (358.4 Mt). China is expected to increase its domestic supply by 4.6%, reaching 272.6 Mt. Brazil's production volume is expected to reach 116 Mt, an increase of 33.3% compared to the 2020/21 season (87 Mt). The European Union and Argentina have expected volumes of 70.5 and 53 Mt, which represent increases of 5 and 1.9% over the previous crop, respectively.
As for international trade, it is estimated that world grain exports will increase by 8.2%, from 182.1 Mt in the 2020/21 season to 197 Mt in the current cycle. This would be due to the increase in export volumes from Brazil (44.5 Mt +111.7%) and the European Union (4.9 Mt +31.2%), which would offset the decline expected for the United States, which is expected to reduce its shipments abroad by 9.2%, from 69.9 to 63.5 Mt.
Finally, China is expected to decrease its corn imports by 22.1%, reaching 23 Mt, offset by an increase in domestic production (272.6 Mt +4.6%).
Soy
World soybean production is expected to decrease by 4.6% compared to the 2020/21 season, from 367.8 to 350.7 Mt. This decrease is due to the drought which has going on for several months in the producing regions of South America, a situation which has greatly affected crop yields. World trade is also expected to decline due to lower soybean exports from Paraguay, Russia, and Ukraine.
The United States is expected to continue to be the country with the highest volume growth among the leading producers (+5.2%), increasing from 114.7 to 120.7 Mt. On the other hand, the production estimates for Brazil and Argentina's crops were once again reduced by 10.4% and 5.8%, respectively, compared to the previous cycle, with volumes of around 125 and 43.5 Mt, respectively.
Export activity will continue to be led by Brazil with 82.8 Mt, up only 1.3% with respect to the previous season, while the United States will reach an export volume of 57.6 Mt, down 6.4% with respect to the previous crop. China will continue to be the world's main oilseed importer with 91 Mt.
Economic Analysis Department of 333 Latin America with data from USDA/ United States.
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/
