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U.S. pork imports are forecast to decline for the balance of 2019 and in 2020 due to a combination of record U.S. production and strong global pork import demand from China and other ASF-stricken Asian countries whose pork production is likely to continue to be reduced by the disease.
Pork processing spreads in November
Seasonally heavy supplies of slaughter hogs and strong pork demand combined in November to produce the widest pork processing spreads of the year. In November—weeks 45-48— the gross processor spread averaged about $68 per hog, almost 79 percent greater than the November 2018 spread.
Spreads will likely remain above those of a year ago as hog supplies through December weigh on hog prices, while pork demand—both domestic and foreign—supports pork prices.
China exports stand out in November
U.S. pork exports in November were 521 million pounds, almost 4 percent higher than November of last year.
Fourth-quarter pork exports are expected to be 1.8 billion pounds, about 17 percent above the same period a year ago. It is assumed that pork supplies in Asian countries afflicted by ASF—particularly China—will continue to face significant domestic pork supply deficits and import pork.
Lower than expected shipments to Mexico and to several Asian countries in October trimmed the 2020 export forecast back to 7.1 billion pounds. However, the recently approved trade agreement with Japan is expected to mitigate the slower expected growth in total exports.
December 16, 2019 /ERS/
https://www.ers.usda.gov/
