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The results presented are influenced by the possible impacts that the Russia-Ukraine conflict could have in the short term. As for South America, the soybean harvests for Brazil and Argentina, which continue to be affected by adverse weather conditions, were reduced.
Corn
Globally, the USDA estimates that corn production will reach 1,206 million tons (mt) for the 2021/22 marketing year, which is 7.4% higher compared to the 2020/21 period (1,123 mt).
For the major world producers, there were no variations with respect to the forecasts given in the February report. For the United States, production remains at around 383.9 mt, with a growth of 7.1% compared to the previous crop (358.4 mt). China is expected to increase its domestic supply by 4.6%, reaching 272.6 mt. Brazil's production volume is expected to reach 114 mt, an increase of 31% compared to the 2020/21 season (87 mt). Production in the European Union and Argentina is expected to see volumes of 69.8 and 53 mt, respectively, representing increases of 4 and 2.9% compared to the previous crop.
It is estimated that world grain exports would increase by 10%, from 181.8 mt in the previous period to 199.9 mt in the current season. This would be explained by the increase in export volumes from Brazil (+104.8%) and the European Union (+31.3%), which would be offsetting the decrease expected for the United States, which is expected to reduce its shipments abroad by 9.2%, from 69.9 mt to 63.5 mt.
Finally, China's corn imports are expected to fall by 11.9% to 26 mt, which would be offset by an increase in its domestic production (+4.6%).
Soybeans
World soybean production is expected to decrease by 3.4% compared to the 2020/21 season, from 366.2 to 353.8 mt. The United States will continue to stand out as the country with the highest volume growth among the main producers (+5.2%), going from 114.7 to 120.7 mt. On the other hand, the production estimates for Brazil and Argentina's harvests were sharply reduced, as they would decrease by 8 and 5.8% with respect to the previous season, respectively, with volumes that would be around 127 and 43.5 mt.
Export activity will continue to be led by Brazil with 85.5 mt, up 4.7% from the previous season, while the United States will reach an export volume of 56.9 mt, down 7.5% from the previous crop. China will continue to be the main oilseed importer with 94 mt.
March 11, 2022/ Economic Analysis Department of 333 Latin America based on USDA data.
