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USDA corn and soybean forecasts for the 2024/2025 season – August 2024

Compared to the July report, cuts were made to corn production in the European Union and Ukraine, while estimates for the United States and Argentina improved slightly. Global soybean production, trade, and ending stock forecasts increased, supported by increases in the U.S. harvest and exports.

Crop projections for the main world corn and soybean producers - 2024/25 season versus 2023/24 season - last update: August 12, 2024. Prepared by 333 Latin America with data from FAS - USDA.

Here are highlights of the latest grain and oilseed estimates reports released by the USDA on August 12:

Corn

World corn production for the 2024/25 season is expected to reach 1219.8 million tons (Mt), a decrease of 0.3% compared to the 2023/24 season, last etimated at 1223.8 Mt.

United States production is expected to reach 384.7 Mt, down 1.3% compared to the previous season (389.7 Mt). China is forecast to increase its harvest by 1.1%, reaching 292.0 Mt. The European Union is expected to decrease by 1.6% to 60.5 Mt, and Ukraine, with 27.2 Mt, is expected to see a 16.3% decrease compared to the 32.5 Mt in the previous season.

For Brazil, production is expected to reach 127 Mt, up 4.1% compared to the 2023/24 season (122 Mt). Argentina's crop is expected to reach 51 Mt, up 2.0% compared to the last season.

World corn exports are expected to fall by 4.5%, from 200.6 Mt to 191.5 Mt this new season.

The United States would lead exports with 58.4 Mt and is expected to increase by 2.2% compared to the previous season, followed by Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine with 49, 36, and 24 Mt, respectively.

China's demand for imported corn is forecast to remain unchanged at 23 Mt for this new season. The European Union is forecast to import 18.0 Mt, which would represent a decrease of 7.7% compared to the 2023/24 season (19.5 Mt).

Ending stocks are expected to decrease by 0.5% globally, to 310.2 Mt. Stocks in the United States are expected to increase by 11.1%, while those in Brazil and Ukraine should decrease by 26.0 and 53.2%, respectively.

Soybeans

Global soybean production for the 2024/25 season is forecast to increase by 8.5% compared to the previous season, going from 395.1 Mt to 428.7 Mt.

Regarding South American crops, an increase of 10.5% is expected for Brazil, which would reach 169 Mt, while Argentina is estimated to grow by 4.1%, reaching 51.0 Mt.

Paraguay is expected to increase its production by 1.9% compared to the 2023/24 season (10.5 Mt), consolidating a crop of 10.7 Mt.

For the United States, a crop of 124.9 Mt is estimated, which would mean an increase of 10.2% compared to the previous season (113.3 Mt).

Export activity would be led by Brazil with 105.0 Mt, similar to the figure recorded in the 2023/24 season. The United States would reach an export volume of 50.3 Mt, a growth of 8.8% compared to the previous season (46.3 Mt).

Argentina's exports are projected at 4.5 Mt, representing a 19.6% decrease compared to the previous season (5.6 Mt).

China would import 109 Mt, a volume 2.2% below the previous season's total (111.5 Mt).

World ending stocks of the oilseed would increase by 19.5% to 134.3 Mt, which would be supported by increases in stocks in the United States, Brazil, and Argentina.