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Corn and soybean projections for the 2023/2024 season USDA – April 2024

World corn projections were lowered by 2.4 million tons compared to the March report. Soybean production, trade, and ending stock projections were cut slightly.

These are the highlights from the latest grain and oilseed estimates reports released by the USDA on April 11.

Corn

World corn production is expected to reach 1,227.9 million tons (Mt) in the 2023/24 season, representing an increase of 6.1% compared to 2022/23 (1,157.7 Mt).

United States production is projected to be 389.7 Mt, increasing 12.4% compared to the previous season (346.7 Mt). China's harvest should increase by 4.2%, reaching 288.8 Mt. European Union production is expected to grow by 16.7% to reach 61 Mt, and Ukraine, with 29.5 Mt, would see an increase of 9.3%.

Brazilian production is expected to reach 129 Mt, a decrease of 5.8% compared to the previous season, while Argentina's harvest is projected to reach 55 Mt, increasing 52.8% compared to last season's.

World corn exports are forecast to increase by 11.3%, going from 180.2 Mt in the 2022/23 season to 200.6 Mt in this new season. The United States should be the largest exporter with 53.3 Mt, an increase of 26.4% compared to the previous season.

The South American exportable supply is expected to increase significantly with Argentina's increasing 66.4% to 42.0 Mt in this new season. For Brazil, 52 Mt are estimated, a decrease of 4.2% compared to the previous season.

China is expected to import 23 Mt of corn, an increase of 22.9% compared to the previous season (18.7 Mt), while the European Union is expected to import 21.0 Mt, 9.5% less than in the 2022/23 season (23.2 Mt).

Final stocks are expected to increase 5.3% worldwide to reach 318.3 Mt. United States stocks would grow by 56%, while Brazil's would decrease by 45.9%.

Soybeans

World soybean production for the 2023/24 season is anticipated to increase 4.9% compared to the previous season, going from 378.2 to 396.7 Mt.

Estimates for South American harvests show a decrease of 4.3% for Brazil, which would reach 155 Mt, while an increase of 100.0% is projected for Argentina with 50.0 Mt.

Paraguay is expected to increase its production by 4.5% compared to the 2022/23 season (10.1 Mt), to reach a harvest of 10.5 Mt.

In this new report, the US crop is estimated at 113.3 Mt, a decrease of 2.5% compared to the 2022/23 season when it reached 116.2 Mt.

Brazil should lead exports with 103.0 Mt, a 7.8% increase compared to the previous season (95.5 Mt). United States export volumes should reach 46.3 Mt, a decrease of 14.7% compared to the last harvest (54.2 Mt).

Argentina is expected to export 4.6 Mt, which would mean an increase of 9.9% compared to the 2022/23 season (4.2 Mt).

China is expected to import 105 Mt, 0.5% more than the previous season.

Global soybean ending stocks are expected to increase by 12.7% to 114.2 Mt and would be supported by increases in stocks in Argentina, the United States, and China.

April 16, 2024/ 333 Latin America with USDA data/ United States.
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/