Read this article in: Economy

USDA corn and soybean projections for the 2023/2024 season - September 2023

Contrary to the expected cut in the world corn crop, given the adverse effects of the El Niño phenomenon in the United States, the estimate was slightly higher compared to the August report. As for soybeans, the total projection was again reduced due to the lower production expected in the United States.

Highlights of the latest grain and oilseed estimates reports released by the USDA on September 12 are presented:

Corn

World corn production for the new 2023/24 season is expected to reach 1214.3 million tons (Mt), an increase of 5.1% compared to the 2022/23 season (1155.6 Mt).

United States production is expected to be around 384.4 Mt, up 10.2% compared to the previous season (348.8 Mt), while China is forecast to see a decrease in its harvest by 0.1%, reaching 277.0 Mt. The European Union is expected to see a 13.7% growth with 59.4 Mt, while Ukraine, with 28 Mt, would see an increase of 3.7%.

Brazil's production is estimated to reach 129 Mt, representing a decrease of 5.8% compared to the previous season, while Argentina's crop is expected to reach 54 Mt, an increase of 58.8% compared to the previous season.

World exports of the grain would increase by 8%, from 181.7 Mt in the 2022/23 season to 196.2 Mt in this new season, with the United States being the second largest exporter of the grain with 52.1 Mt, up 23.1% compared to the previous season.

The South American exportable supply is expected to increase significantly in Argentina, with a 76.1% increase in this new season with 40.5 Mt, while Brazil is estimated to have 55 Mt, which represents a 3.5% decrease compared to the previous season.

China is expected to import 23 Mt of corn, an increase of 24.3% compared to the previous season (18.5 Mt), while the European Union is expected to reduce its imports by 2.0% to 24 Mt.

World ending stocks should increase by 4.8% to 314.0 Mt. United States stocks should increase by 53%, while for Brazil and China, they should decrease by 22.4% and 2.0% respectively.

Soybeans

World soybean production for the 2023/24 season is expected to increase 8.4% over the previous season, from 370.1 Mt to 401.3 Mt.

Estimates for South American crops show an increase of 4.5% for Brazil, which would reach 163 Mt, while Argentina is projected to increase by 92.0% with 48.0 Mt.

Paraguay is set to increase its production by 10.5% compared to the 2022/23 season (9.1 Mt), reaching a crop of 10 Mt, returning to the levels that were usual until the 2020/21 season.

This new report estimates a U.S. crop of 112.8 Mt, a decrease of 3.0% compared to the 2022/23 season when the crop reached 116.4 Mt.

The export activity would be led by Brazil with 97 Mt, growing 2.1% compared to the previous season (95.0 Mt), while the United States is expected to reach an export volume of 48.7 Mt, representing a decrease of 10.1% compared to last year's crop (54.2 Mt).