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USDA corn and soybean projections for the 2024/2025 season - January 2025

Compared to the December report, there was a significant cut in U.S. corn production and ending stocks, while a larger harvest and lower imports were estimated for China. A decrease in the global soybean harvest and ending stocks was projected, derived from a lower forecast for U.S. production.

These are the highlights from the latest grain and oilseed estimates reports released by the USDA on January 10.

Corn

World corn production for the 2024/25 marketing year is expected to be around 1214.3 million tons (Mt), a decrease of 1.3% compared to the 2023/24 marketing year, last estimated at 1230.0 Mt.

United States production would reach 377.6 Mt, down 3.1% compared to the previous season (389.7 Mt), while China would increase its crop by 2.1%, reaching 294.9 Mt. The European Union would decrease by 6.3% with 58.0 Mt, while Ukraine, with 26.5 Mt, would decrease 18.5% compared to the 32.5 Mt consolidated in the previous season.

Brazil's production would reach 127 Mt, up 4.1% compared to the 2023/24 season (122 Mt), while for Argentina, the harvest would be around 51 Mt, up 2.0% compared to the last season.

World corn exports are expected to fall 0.3% this new season, reaching 191.4 Mt.

The United States would lead the export activity with 62.2 Mt and would increase 6.9% compared to the previous season, followed by Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine with 47, 36, and 23 Mt, respectively.

China is expected to reduce its demand for imported corn by 44.5%, reaching only 13 Mt for this new season, while the European Union would import 19.5 Mt, a decrease of 1.7% compared to the 2023/24 season (19.8 Mt).

Ending stocks are expected to fall 7.6% globally, to 293.3 Mt. Stocks in the United States would fall by 12.7%, while Brazil's and Ukraine's would decrease by 67.9% and 59.3%, respectively.

Soybeans

Global soybean production for the 2024/25 season would increase 7.4% compared to the previous season, going from 395.0 Mt to 424.3 Mt.

Brazil's crop is forecast to increase by 10.5% reaching 169 Mt, while Argentina's is estimated to grow by 7.9%, reaching 52.0 Mt.

Paraguay's production would increase by 1.8% compared to the 2023/24 season (11.0 Mt), consolidating a crop of 11.2 Mt.

The United States crop is estimated to reach 118.8 Mt, an increase of 4.9% compared to the previous season (113.3 Mt).

Brazil would lead exports with 105.5 Mt, up 1.3% from the 2023/24 season. The United States would reach an export volume of 49.7 Mt, a 7.7% increase compared to the previous season (46.1 Mt).

Exports for Argentina are projected at 4.5 Mt, a 12.0% decrease compared to the previous season (5.1 Mt).

China would import 109 Mt, 2.7% below the previous year's total (112.0 Mt).

Global ending stocks would increase by 14.2% to 128.4 Mt, supported by increases in stocks in the United States, Brazil, and Argentina.

January 22, 2025/ 333 Latin America with USDA data/ United States.
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/