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USDA corn and soybean projections for 2024/2025 - October 2024

Higher U.S. corn exports were estimated and Chinese corn imports were cut again. Soybean figures remained almost unchanged, reflecting a bumper crop and an increase in ending stocks.

Crop projections for the main world corn and soybean producers - 2024/25 season versus 2023/24 season - last update: October 11, 2024. Prepared by the 333 Latin America with data from FAS - USDA.

These are the highlights of the latest grain and oilseed estimates reports released by the USDA on October 11:

Corn

World corn production for the 2024/25 marketing year is expected to be around 1,217.2 million tons (Mt), down 0.7% compared to the 2023/24 season, last estimated at 1,225.9 Mt.
United States production is expected to reach 386.2 Mt, down 0.9% from the previous season (389.7 Mt). China is expected to increase its crop by 1.1% to 292.0 Mt. The European Union is expected to see a 4.0% decrease in production to 59.0 Mt. Ukraine is expected to record a 19.4% decline, with 26.2 Mt compared to 32.5 Mt in the previous season.
Brazil should produce around 127 Mt, up 4.1% from the 2023/24 season (122 Mt). Argentina should harvest around 51 Mt, up 2.0% from the previous season.
World corn exports are expected to fall by 2.7%, from 195.8 Mt to 190.5 Mt in the new season.
The United States should lead exports with 59.1 Mt, a 1.4% increase over the previous season, followed by Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine with 49, 36, and 23 Mt, respectively.
China is expected to reduce its demand for imported corn by 19.1%, reaching 19 Mt for the new season. The European Union should import 19.0 Mt, 2.6% less compared to the 2023/24 season (19.5 Mt).
World ending stocks are expected to decrease by 2.0% to 306.5 Mt. In the United States, stocks would increase by 13.5%, while in Brazil and Ukraine they would decrease by 51.4% and 56.8%, respectively.

Soybeans

Global soybean production for the 2024/25 season is forecast to increase by 8.7% compared to the previous season, going from 394.7 Mt to 428.9 Mt.
Estimates for South American crops indicate a 10.5% increase for Brazil, reaching 169 Mt, while Argentina is projected to increase by 6.0%, reaching 51.0 Mt.
Paraguay is expected to increase its production by 1.8% compared to the 2023/24 season (11.0 Mt), consolidating a harvest of 11.2 Mt.
The United States crop is estimated at 124.7 Mt, which would represent an increase of 10.1% over the previous season (113.3 Mt).
Brazil would lead exports, with 105.0 Mt, 0.8% more than in the 2023/24 season. The United States would reach an export volume of 50.3 Mt, a 9.2% increase compared to the previous season (46.1 Mt).
Argentina is projected to export 4.5 Mt, 11.8% less than in the previous season (5.1 Mt).
China would import 109 Mt, 2.7% less than the total for the previous season (112.0 Mt).
Soybean ending stocks are expected to increase by 19.8% globally, reaching 134.6 Mt, driven by increases in stocks in the United States, Brazil, and Argentina.