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USDA corn and soybean projections for 2024/25 - February 2025

Compared to the January report, significant cuts were made in South American corn harvests and in exports from Brazil and Ukraine, related to the fall in Chinese imports. A decrease in the global soybean harvest and ending stocks was again projected, due to lower production in Argentina.

These are the highlights from the latest grain and oilseed estimates reports released by the USDA on February 11:

Corn

Production

World corn production for the 2024/25 season is expected to be around 1212.5 million tons (Mt), a decrease of 1.4% compared to the 2023/24 season, last estimated at 1230.1 Mt.

United States production would reach 377.6 Mt, down 3.1% compared to the previous season (389.7 Mt), while China's harvest would increase by 2.1%, reaching 294.9 Mt. The European Union would decrease by 6.3% with 58.0 Mt, while Ukraine, with 26.5 Mt, would decrease 18.5% compared to the 32.5 Mt consolidated in the previous season.

For Brazil, production would reach 126 Mt, an increase of 3.3% compared to the 2023/24 season (122 Mt), while for Argentina the harvest would be around 50 Mt, similar to last season.

Exports

World corn exports are expected to fall 2.1% this new season to 189.2 Mt.

The United States would lead the export activity with 62.2 Mt, an increase of 6.9% compared to the previous season, followed by Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine with 46, 36, and 22 Mt, respectively.

Imports

China would reduce its demand for imported corn by 57.3%, at just 10 Mt for this new season. The European Union would import 19.5 Mt, a decrease of 1.7% compared to the 2023/24 season (19.8 Mt).

Stocks

Final stocks would fall by 8.1% globally, to 290.3 Mt. Stocks in the United States would fall by 12.7%, while Brazil's and Ukraine's would decrease by 67.9% and 40.3%, respectively.

Soybeans

Production

Global soybean production for the 2024/25 season is expected to increase by 6.5% compared to the previous season, going from 395.0 to 420.8 Mt.

Estimates for the South American crops point to a 10.5% increase for Brazil, which would reach 169 Mt. For Argentina a growth of 1.6% is estimated, reaching 49.0 Mt.

Paraguay's production would decrease by 2.7% compared to the 2023/24 season (11.0 Mt), consolidating a harvest of 10.7 Mt.

For the United States, a crop of 118.8 Mt is estimated, an increase of 4.9% compared to the previous season (113.3 Mt).

Exports

Export activity would be led by Brazil with 105.5 Mt, 1.3% higher than the 2023/24 season. The United States would reach an export volume of 49.7 Mt, a 7.7% increase compared to the previous season (46.1 Mt).

Exports for Argentina are projected at 4.5 Mt, a 12.0% decrease compared to the previous season (5.1 Mt).

Imports

China would import 109 Mt, 2.7% below last season's total (112.0 Mt).

Stocks

Global ending stocks of soybeans would increase by 10.5%, reaching 124.3 Mt, supported by increases in stocks in the United States, Brazil, and Argentina.

February 11, 2025/ 333 Latin America with data from USDA.
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/