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Source: USDA. WASDE. September 12, 2022. Figures in millions of tons.
Here are the highlights from the latest grain and oilseed estimates reports released by the USDA on September 12:
Corn
- World corn production is expected to reach 1172.6 million tons (Mt), a 3.9% drop compared to the 2021/22 season (1219.8 Mt). This would be due to lower production in the United States, the European Union, and Ukraine.
- United States production is forecast to be around 354.2 Mt, down 7.7% from the previous season (383.9 Mt), while China will increase its crop by 0.5% to 274 Mt. The European Union will decrease by 17.2% with 58.8 Mt, while Ukraine, with 31.5 Mt, will see a decrease of 25.2%.
- Production estimates for the South American crops remained unchanged from the August report, with an 8.6% increase of 126 Mt for Brazil and a 3.8% increase of 55 Mt for Argentina.
- World corn exports are expected to fall by 9.7%, from 203.3 Mt in the 2021/22 season to 183.6 Mt in the new season. This would be largely due to the decline in exports from Ukraine (-50.0%), the European Union (-53.4%), and the United States (-8.1%).
- South America's exportable supply remained unchanged from the August report, increasing by 5.6% for Brazil with 47 Mt and by 5.1% for Argentina with 41 Mt.
- China is expected to import 18 Mt of corn, down 21.7% compared to the previous season (23 Mt). Vietnam, Iran, the European Union, and Mexico will increase their imports by 16.3%, 11.8%, 2.7%, and 1.1%, respectively.
- Final stocks are expected to fall by 2.4% worldwide, to 304.5 Mt. For the European Union, the United States, and Russia, stocks are expected to fall by 23.8%, 20.01%, and 16.2%, respectively.
Soybeans
- World soybean production for the 2022/23 season is expected to increase by 10.3% over the previous season, from 353.2 Mt to 389.8 Mt.
- Estimates for South American crops remain unchanged with respect to the August report. The Brazilian crop is expected to reach 149 Mt, an increase of 18.3% with respect to the previous crop cycle (126 Mt), while Argentina is expected to increase by 15.9% with a production of 51 Mt.
- In this new report, the U.S. crop is projected at 119.2 Mt, a drop of 1.3% compared to the 2021/22 season when it reached 120.7 Mt.
- Brazil will lead the export activity with 89 Mt, an 11.3% increase compared to the previous season (80 Mt), while the United States is expected to reach an export volume of 56.7 Mt, which represents a 2.8% decrease compared to last year's crop (58.4 Mt).
- China is expected to import 97 Mt, up 7.8% compared to the 2021/22 season.
- Final stocks of soybeans are forecast to increase by 10.3% globally, reaching 98.9 Mt. However, for the United States and China, their stocks are expected to fall by 16.7% and 0.9%, respectively.
Economics and Market Intelligence Department 333 Latin America, with data from: USDA | United States. https://apps.fas.usda.gov/
