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These are the highlights from the latest grain and oilseed estimates reports released by the USDA on June 12:
Corn
- World corn production for the 2024/25 season is expected to be around 1220.5 million tons (Mt), representing a 0.6% decrease compared to the 2023/24 season, which was last estimated at 1228.1 Mt.
- For the United States, production is expected to reach 377.5 Mt, down 3.1% compared to the previous season (389.7 Mt). China should see its harvest increase by 1.1% to reach 292.0 Mt. The European Union is forecast to see a 6.2% growth with 64.8 Mt, while Ukraine, with 27.7 Mt, would see a decrease of 10.6% compared to the 31 Mt consolidated in the previous season.
- Brazil's production should reach 127 Mt, up 4.1% compared to the 2023/24 season (122 Mt), while Argentina's harvest should be around 51 Mt, down 3.8% compared to the last season.
- World corn exports are expected to fall by 3.7%, from 199.1 Mt to 191.7 Mt this new season.
- The United States should lead exports with 55.9 Mt, up 2.3% compared to the previous season, followed by Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine with 49, 36, and 24.5 Mt respectively, whose totals would decrease by 2.0%, 5.3%, and 5.8%, respectively.
- China's corn demand is expected to remain unchanged at 23 Mt for this new season, while the European Union would import 18.0 Mt, a decrease of 14.3% compared to the 2023/24 season (21.0 Mt).
- Ending stocks are expected to fall by 0.5% globally, to 310.8 Mt. Stocks in the United States are expected to increase by 4%, while those of Brazil and Ukraine are expected to decrease by 26.0% and 49.1%, respectively.
Soybeans
- Global soybean production for the 2024/25 season would increase by 6.7% compared to the previous season, going from 395.9 to 422.3 Mt.
- Estimates for South American crops indicate an increase of 10.5% for Brazil, which would reach 169 Mt, while Argentina is estimated to grow by 2.0%, reaching 51.0 Mt.
- Paraguay is expected to increase its production by 1.9% compared to the 2023/24 season (10.5 Mt) to reach 10.7 Mt.
- The United States expects a crop of 121.1 Mt, an increase of 6.9% compared to the previous season (113.3 Mt).
- Export activity should be led by Brazil with 105.0 Mt, up 2.9% compared to the 2023/24 season (102.0 Mt), while the United States should see export volumes of 49.7 Mt, a 7.4% growth compared to the previous season (46.3 Mt).
- Argentina is expected to export 5.5 Mt, an increase of 19.6% compared to the previous season (4.6 Mt).
- China is expected to import 109 Mt, 3.8% above the previous year's total (105 Mt).
- Global soybean ending stocks are expected to increase by 15.1% to 127.9 Mt, supported by increases in stocks in the United States, Brazil, and Argentina.
June 12, 2024/ 333 Latin America with USDA data/ United States.
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/
