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USDA corn and soybean projections for the 2024/2025 season - March 2025

Compared to February, estimates for global corn exports were cut, which could be explained by a projected decrease in shipments from Brazil. Likewise, a significant drop in corn imports from China was estimated. As for soybeans, projections remained unchanged, except for a drop in ending stocks.

These are the highlights from the latest grain and oilseed estimates reports released by the USDA on March 11:

Corn

Production

World corn production for the 2024/25 marketing year would be around 1214.2 million tons (Mt), a decrease of 1.1% compared to the 2023/24 season, last estimated at 1228.1 Mt.

United States production is expected to reach 377.6 Mt, down 3.1% compared to the previous season (389.7 Mt), while China's production would increase by 2.1%, reaching 294.9 Mt. The European Union is expected to see a 6.3% decrease with 58.0 Mt. Ukraine, with 26.8 Mt, would see a decrease of 17.5% compared to the 32.5 Mt in the previous season.

For Brazil, production is expected to reach 126 Mt, up 5.9% compared to the 2023/24 season (119 Mt), while for Argentina the harvest would be around 50 Mt, down 2.0% compared to last season (51 Mt).

Exports

World corn exports are expected to fall 3.7% this new season, with 186.4 Mt.

The United States would lead the export activity with 62.2 Mt and would grow 6.9% compared to the previous season, followed by Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine with 44, 36, and 22 Mt, respectively.

Imports

China is expected to reduce its demand for imported corn by 65.8%, reaching only 8 Mt for this new season, while the European Union would import 19.5 Mt, which would represent a decrease of 1.7% compared to the 2023/24 season (19.8 Mt).

Stocks

Ending stocks are forecast to fall by 8.0% globally, to 288.9 Mt. Stocks in the United States would fall by 12.7%, while those in Brazil and Ukraine would fall by 60.3% and 30.9 %, respectively.

Soybeans

Production

Global soybean production for the 2024/25 season is expected to increase by 6.5% compared to the previous season, from 395.0 Mt to 420.8 Mt.

Estimates for the South American crops indicate an increase of 10.5% for Brazil, which would reach 169 Mt, while Argentina is estimated to grow by 1.6%, reaching 49.0 Mt.

Paraguay is expected to reduce its production by 2.7% compared to the 2023/24 season (11.0 Mt), consolidating a crop of 10.7 Mt.

For the United States, a crop of 118.8 Mt is estimated, which would mean an increase of 4.9% compared to the previous season (113.3 Mt).

Exports

Export activity would be led by Brazil with 105.5 Mt, 1.3% higher than the 2023/24 season, while the United States would reach an export volume of 49.7 Mt, indicating a growth of 7.7% compared to the previous season (46.1 Mt).