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USDA global corn and soybean projections for the 2024/25 season - November

Compared to the October report, cuts were made to U.S. and EU corn harvests, and global soybean projections were lowered.

Crop projections for the main world corn and soybean producers - 2024/25 season versus 2023/24 season - last update: November 8, 2024. Prepared by 333 Latin America with data from FAS - USDA.

These are the highlights from the latest grain and oilseed estimates reports released by the USDA on November 8:

Corn

World corn production for the 2024/25 season is forecast to be 1219.4 million tons (Mt), a 0.8% decrease from the 2023/24 season, last estimated at 1229.1 Mt.

United States production would reach 384.6 Mt, down 1.3% compared to the previous season (389.7 Mt). China's harvest would increase by 1.1%, reaching 292.0 Mt. The European Union would see a 4.3% decrease with 58.8 Mt. Ukraine, with 26.2 Mt, would see a 19.4% decrease compared to the 32.5 Mt harvested in the previous season.

Brazil's production would reach 127 Mt, up 4.1% compared to the 2023/24 season (122 Mt). Argentina's harvest would be around 51 Mt, up 2.0% from last season.

World corn exports are expected to fall 3.0%, from 195.6 Mt to 189.8 Mt this new season.

The United States would lead the export activity with 59.1 Mt, up 1.4% from the previous season. Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine follow with 48, 36, and 23 Mt, respectively.

China is expected to reduce its demand for imported corn by 31.6%, reaching 16 Mt for this new season. The European Union would import 19.0 Mt, a decrease of 2.6% compared to the 2023/24 season (19.5 Mt).

Final stocks are forecast to decrease by 3.2% globally, to 304.1 Mt. Stocks in the United States would increase by 10.1%, while those in Brazil and Ukraine would decrease by 51.4% and 56.8%, respectively.

Soybeans

Global soybean production for the 2024/25 season is expected to increase 7.8% from the previous season, from 394.7 to 425.4 Mt.

Estimates for the South American crops point to an increase of 10.5% for Brazil to reach 169 Mt, while Argentina is estimated to grow 5.8% to reach 51.0 Mt.

Paraguay is expected to increase its production by 1.8% compared to the 2023/24 season (11.0 Mt), with a crop of 11.2 Mt.

The United States harvest is estimated to reach 121.4 Mt, an increase of 7.2% compared to the previous season (113.3 Mt).

Brazil would lead exports with 105.0 Mt, 1.3% more than the 2023/24 season, while the United States would export 49.7 Mt, up 7.7% from the previous season (46.1 Mt).

Argentina is projected to export 4.5 Mt, a 12.0% decrease compared to the previous season (5.1 Mt).

China would import 109 Mt, 2.7% less than the previous season (112.0 Mt).

Ending stocks of soybeans globally are expected to increase by 17.2% to 131.7 Mt, supported by increases in stocks in the United States, Brazil, and Argentina.