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USDA's first corn and soybean estimates for 2024/2025 - May 2024

World corn production is expected to be lower due to a cut in the U.S. crop, and exports are expected to fall in Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine. The new soybean crop outlook is good, with significant increases in production, international trade, and final stocks.

Crop forecast for the world's main corn and soybean producers - 2024/25 season versus 2023/24 season. Prepared by 333 Latin America with data from FAS - USDA.

These are the highlights from the latest grain and oilseed estimates reports released by the USDA on May 10:

Corn

World corn production for the 2024/25 season is expected to be around 1219.9 million tons (Mt), representing a decrease of 0.7% compared to the 2023/24 season, with the latest estimate at 1228.1 Mt.

United States production is forecast to reach 377.5 Mt, down 3.1% compared to the previous season (389.7 Mt). China's is expected to increase by 1.1%, reaching 292.0 Mt. The European Union anticipates a growth of 6.2% with 64.8 Mt while Ukraine, with 27.0 Mt, would see a decrease of 12.9% compared to the 31 Mt consolidated in the previous season.

For Brazil, production is forecast to reach 127 Mt, up 4.1% compared to the 2023/24 season (122 Mt), while Argentina's crop is expected to reach 51 Mt, down 3.8% compared to the last season.

World corn exports are expected to fall 3.2%, from 197.4 Mt to 191.1 Mt this new season.

The United States should lead export activity with 55.9 Mt, up 2.3% compared to the previous season, followed by Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine with 49, 36, and 24 Mt, respectively whose totals would decrease by 2.0%, 5.3%, and 7.7%.

China's corn demand is expected to remain unchanged at 23 Mt for this new season, while the European Union will import 18.0 Mt, which represents a decrease of 14.3% compared to the 2023/24 season (21.0 Mt).

Ending stocks would fall by 0.3% globally, to 312.3 Mt. United States stocks would increase by 4%, while in Brazil and Ukraine, they would decrease by 26.0% and 49.1%, respectively.

Soybeans

Global soybean production for the 2024/25 season would increase 6.4% compared to the previous season, from 396.9 to 422.3 Mt.

Estimates for the South American crops indicate an increase of 9.7% for Brazil, reaching 169 Mt, while Argentina is estimated to grow by 2.0%, reaching 51.0 Mt.

Paraguay would increase its production by 1.9% compared to the 2023/24 season (10.5 Mt), resulting in a harvest of 10.7 Mt.

The United States crop is estimated to reach 121.1 Mt, a 6.9% increase compared to the previous season (113.3 Mt).

The export activity would be led by Brazil with 105.0 Mt, growing by 2.9% compared to the 2023/24 season (102.0 Mt), while the United States would reach an export volume of 49.7 Mt, which indicates a 7.4% growth compared to the previous season (46.3 Mt).