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World pig farming: Updated estimates for 2024 from USDA

In its latest report "Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade" released on April 11, the USDA revised its estimates for 2024, forecasting a decrease in world pork production, which would be due to lower production in China, offset by increases expected in the United States, European Union, and Brazil.

Updated estimates for the key variables of world pig production in 2024, annual variations. Prepared by 333 Latin America with data from FAS - USDA.

General production context

World pork production in 2024 is expected to decrease by 1% due to the decrease in the volume expected for China, and that it would not be offset by the increase in production expected for the European Union, the United States and Brazil. .
Pork production in China is forecast to be 3% lower than in 2023 and would be a consequence of persistently low prices in 2023 that caused contraction in the country's swine industry.
EU pig production is expected to increase by 2% in 2024. Last year's high piglet and carcass prices encouraged producers to start rebuilding the breeding herd at the end of 2023, leading to an estimated 2% growth in the pig inventory in 2024. In addition, lower feed prices are expected to improve the industry's profitability and increase animal weight.

Brazilian production is expected to increase by 4% as producers continue benefiting from low production costs. Brazilian production is also expected to be supported by improving domestic demand and strong export demand as Brazil remains a low-cost supplier.

General export context

World exports are expected to be 4% higher compared to 2023, as shipments from major exporters, including the United States, the EU, Brazil, and Canada, are expected to increase.

EU exports are estimated to increase by 3% as increased production and more competitive prices in the second half of the year will provide growth opportunities. EU exports to the United States are expected to increase significantly.

Brazil's shipments in 2024 are expected to increase by 5% year-on-year, with particularly strong competitiveness to the Philippines, Chile, and Hong Kong.

Canadian exports are forecast to increase by 1%, with modest increases in Japan and South Korea, where Canada will compete with the United States for market share.

Global estimates

World pork production in 2024 is expected to reach 115.6 million tons (Mt), representing a 0.6% decrease compared to 2023 (116.2 Mt).

Global exports for 2024 are forecast to grow by 4.4% compared to the previous year, going from 10.1 Mt to 10.5 Mt.

Imports should reach 9.4 Mt in 2024, representing a 2.6% increase compared to 2023 (9.2 Mt).

Apparent consumption will decrease by 0.8%, from 115.4 to 114.5 Mt.

Leading countries

China, which would account for 48.4% of world production, is expected to produce 56 Mt of pork, down 3.4% compared to 2023. Pork import volumes should decrease by 1.2% to 1.9 Mt.

The European Union's production is anticipated to increase by 1.7%, reaching 21.2 Mt, while its exports (3.2 Mt) would grow by 2.8% compared to 2023 (3.1 Mt). EU imports are estimated at 100,000 t, a 7.4% decrease compared to 2023.

The United States is expected to increase production by 2.9% with 12.7 Mt, and exports are expected to increase by 7.7% to 3.3 Mt.

Japan would be the third leading pork importer worldwide with 1.4 Mt, increasing by 1.0%.

Brazil is expected to increase production volume by 4.2%, reaching 4.6 Mt. Exports of 1.5 Mt are also expected, an increase of 5.4% compared to 2023.

Mexico should see a 2.1% growth in production with an approximate 1.6 Mt. It would climb to second place in the world ranking of imports with a total of 1.5 Mt and an 8.9% growth compared to 2023.