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After a good year in 2024, with record exports and domestic prices at nominal highs, the outlook for the pig production sector remains positive for 2025. Everything indicates that global and domestic demand for pork in Brazil should continue to be strong. On the supply side, Cepea's preliminary estimates indicate an increase in the sector's production. On the external front, the national swine industry should continue to focus on the foreign market, seeking to strengthen and/or improve its position in the ranking of the biggest international players.
The excellent export performance in recent years is linked to the sector's efforts to increase its presence in the global market amid the gradual reduction (starting in mid-2022) of imports by China. Even in the face of reduced shipments to China, shipments to other trading partners should guarantee another year of good export performance.
Cepea studies indicate that in 2025, foreign pork sales could grow by up to 6.6% compared to the volume in 2024, reaching 1.22 million tons. On the domestic market, demand for pork should remain firm in 2025, especially considering that beef prices are high. USDA estimates point to a 1.8% increase in per capita pork consumption in Brazil in 2025.
In order for the external and internal demands for Brazilian protein to be sustainably met throughout 2025, Cepea researchers indicate that the volume of pork produced should reach around 5.53 million tons this year, an increase of 2.8% compared to that projected for 2024.
January 3, 2025/ CEPEA/ Brazil.
https://www.cepea.esalq.usp.br
